IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_4253.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Exchange Rate Susceptibility of Some European Core Industries and the Currency Union

Author

Listed:
  • David Leuwer
  • Bernd Süssmuth

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between real exchange rate changes and the German, French and UK automobile and mechanical engineering sector. In stylized models, exports decline whenever the domestic currency appreciates and vice versa. Strategic firm behavior, however, can obscure the unambiguousness of this relationship, rendering the impact of a strengthening Euro on exports and on overall order volume unclear. To quantify the impact of the EUR/USD real exchange rate on German and French key exporting industries, we estimate a trivariate VAR based on monthly data from 1995 to 2010, respectively. We proceed analogously with the GBP/USD rate and the UK automobile and mechanical engineering sector series. Our findings indicate that an appreciating Euro hampers exports in the German and French core sectors, but does not cause these industries “pain” in the sense of an aggravated business climate. The latter does not apply to the respective time series for the UK. Time varying parameter VAR estimates confirm this immunization for members in the period after installation of the currency union.

Suggested Citation

  • David Leuwer & Bernd Süssmuth, 2013. "The Exchange Rate Susceptibility of Some European Core Industries and the Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 4253, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4253.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, June.
    3. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1651-1672, December.
    5. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    6. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    8. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    10. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II US Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christian Seiler, 2015. "On the robustness of balance statistics with respect to nonresponse," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 45-62.
    12. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
    13. Paul De Grauwe & Guy Verfaille, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability, Misalignment, and the European Monetary System," NBER Chapters, in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, pages 77-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    15. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-241.
    16. repec:zbw:rwirep:0148 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    18. Christine Sauer & Alok K. Bohara, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    19. Martin Falk & Rahel Falk, 2000. "Pricing to Market of German Exporters: Evidence from Panel Data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 21-46, March.
    20. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    22. Williamson, Rohan, 2001. "Exchange rate exposure and competition: evidence from the automotive industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 441-475, March.
    23. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leuwer, David & Süßmuth, Bernd, 2017. "The exchange rate susceptibility of European core industries, 1995-2010," Working Papers 147, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    2. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Yau, Ruey & Wu, Jyun-Yi, 2009. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure and Industry Characteristics : Evidence from Japanese Data," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 57-69, June.
    3. Santiago Bazdresch & Adrian de la Garza & Alejandra Lelo de Larrea, 2018. "How Does the Economy Respond to a Depreciation? Evidence in the Dynamics of Profit Margins, Company Values and Retail Prices of Mexican Public Corporations, 2010-2017," 2018 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    5. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    6. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. repec:rim:rimwps:24-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gamini Premaratne & Prabhath Jayasinghe, 2005. "Exchange rate exposure of stock returns at firm level," International Finance 0503004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    10. Aggarwal, Raj & Harper, Joel T., 2010. "Foreign exchange exposure of "domestic" corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1619-1636, December.
    11. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear time series models," Staff Reports 285, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2013. "Reaction to technology shocks in Markov-switching structural VARs: Identification via heteroskedasticity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 51-62.
    14. repec:rim:rimwps:26-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The impact of the introduction of the Euro on foreign exchange rate risk exposures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 519-549, October.
    16. Anastasios Evgenidis & Costas Siriopoulos, 2015. "What are the International Channels Through Which a US Policy Shock is Transmitted to The World Economies? Evidence from a Time Varying FAVAR," Working Papers 190, Bank of Greece.
    17. Doidge, Craig & Griffin, John & Williamson, Rohan, 2006. "Measuring the economic importance of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 550-576, October.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and commodity trade between United States and Australia: An asymmetric analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1509-1700, June.
    19. Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
    20. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2016. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 374-390.
    21. Olivier Bonroy & Jean‐Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue, 2007. "Are exports a monotonic function of exchange rate volatility? Evidence from disaggregated pork exports," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 127-154, February.
    22. David Kihangire, 2005. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability On Exports: Evidence From Uganda (1988 – 2001)," International Trade 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exporting sectors; confidence indicators; time varying parameter VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.