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Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate

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Hans-Werner Sinn
Frank Westermann

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Abstract

This paper reconsiders the determinants of the exchange rate by studying the historical episode after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Testing a modified portfolio balance model, we attribute the strength of the deutschmark in the early nineties and the puzzling decline of the euro during its virtual existence to changes in the demand for deutschmarks in eastern Europe and to variations in the demand for black money balances in Europe as a whole. We reject the view that the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the euro reflect the prosperity of the US and the weakness of the European economy on both theoretical and empirical grounds.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8352.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8352

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 515-19, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Richard D. Porter & Ruth A. Judson, 1996. "The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 883-903.
  4. Fried, Joel & Howitt, Peter, 1983. "The Effects of Inflation on Real Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 968-80, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1987. "Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Economics Working Papers 8752, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1983. "International capital movements, flexible exchange rates, and the IS-LM model : A comparison between the portfolio-balance and the flow hypotheses," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 36-63, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik H. Enste, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1992. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 92/34, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Robert Murphy & Carl Duyne, 1980. "Asset market approaches to exchange rate determination: A comparative analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 116(4), pages 627-656, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 2000. "Seignorage Wealth in the Eurosystem: Eurowinners and Eurolosers Revisited," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dooley, Michael & Isard, Peter, 1982. "A portfolio-balance rational-expectations model of the dollar-mark exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 257-276, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The Distribution of Seignorage Wealth in EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  17. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 41-48, 02. [Downloadable!]
  2. Helmut Stix, 2002. "The Euro in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE countries) : survey evidence from five countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 3(3), pages 33-38, 04. [Downloadable!]
  3. Guy Meredith, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been So Weak?," IMF Working Papers 01/155, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2001. "Flight from the Old Euro-Area Currencies," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(4), pages 44-47, 02. [Downloadable!]
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