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Persistence Of Output Fluctuations Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

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Author Info

  • Mark Crosby

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

  • Glenn Otto

    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

Abstract

In a recent paper Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence to suggest the time that output takes to return to its trend following a negative shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper VAR models are used to provide empirical evidence on the speed of recovery of real output following an interest rate shock for a number of Asian economies. We find little evidence that the degree of persistence in output is systematically related to the type of exchange rate regime that particular countries have adopted. Across a number of specifications we find that real output for Hong Kong and Australia has the least persistence following a negative interest rate shock. These countries represent the two ends of the spectrum, the former has an exchange rate that is pegged to the U.S. dollar via a currency board and the latter has one of the more flexible exchange rates in the Asian region.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 072001.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:072001

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  1. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse- Response Analysis," Economics Working Papers 92-201, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Mark Crosby, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 606-623, November.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  6. Lastrapes, William D. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "International transmission of aggregate shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes: United Kingdom, France, and Germany, 1959 to 1985," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 402-423, December.
  7. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  8. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hutchison, Michael & Walsh, Carl E., 1992. "Empirical evidence on the insulation properties of fixed and flexible exchange rates : The Japanese experience," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 241-263, May.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  12. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
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Cited by:
  1. Ben S.C. Fung, 2002. "A VAR analysis of the effects of monetary policy in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 119, Bank for International Settlements.

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