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Shock persistence and the choice of foreign exchange regime - an empirical note from Mexico

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  • Giugale, Marcelo
  • Korobow, Adam
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    Abstract

    The academic and policy debate about optimal foreign exchange rate regimes for emerging economies, has focused more on the theoretical costs and benefits of possible regimes, than on their actual performance. The authors report on what can be called exchange-rate-regime-dependent differential shock persistence - that is, the time output takes to return to its trend after a negative shock - in a sample of countries representing various points on the spectrum of nominal foreign exchange flexibility. They find strong evidence that Mexico's stimulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float, than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. These results are insufficient to guide the choice of regime (they lack general equilibrium value, and are based on a limited sample of countries), but they highlight an important practical consideration in making that choice: How long it takes for output to adjust after negative shocks, is sensitive to the level of rigidity of the foreign exchange regime. This factor may be critical when the social costs of those adjustments are not negligible.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2371.

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    Date of creation: 31 Jul 2000
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2371

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    Keywords: Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Environmental Economics&Policies; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Stabilization; Macroeconomic Management; Economic Theory&Research; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Environmental Economics&Policies;

    References

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    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1994. "Persistence in real variables under alternative exchange rate regimes : Some multi-country evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 93-102, May.
    2. Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 813-27, July.
    4. Osakwe, Patrick N. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2002. "Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 299-325, August.
    5. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 1995. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the stochastic behavior of real variables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 395-415, June.
    7. Rosenswieg, Jeffrey A & Tallman, Ellis W, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 580-94, October.
    8. David Felix, 1998. "On Drawing General Policy Lessons from Recent Latin American Currency Crises," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 20(2), pages 191-221, January.
    9. Flood, Robert P & Marion, Nancy Peregrim, 1982. "The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimes with Optimal Indexing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 43-66, February.
    10. Mayadunne, Geetha & Evans, Merran & Inder, Brett, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(213), pages 145-56, June.
    11. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
    12. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1985. "Real Aspects of Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Collapsing Fixed Rates," NBER Working Papers 1603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    14. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2010. "Cross Country Evidence on Consumption Persistence," MPRA Paper 22008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Belbute, José Manuel, 2013. "Is the Euro-Area core price index really more persistent than the food and energy price indexes?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 307-315.
    3. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2009. "Measuring the Persistence on Consumption in Portugal," MPRA Paper 15116, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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