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Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents

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Author Info

  • Englund, Peter

    (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)

  • Gunnelin, Åke

    ()
    (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)

  • Hoesli, Martin

    ()
    (University of Geneva (HEC and FAME))

  • Söderberg, Bo

    ()
    (Royal Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998-2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality-constant (i.e. indices should not only control for the characteristics of rental units), but should also be maturity-constant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Financial Research in its series SIFR Research Report Series with number 12.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Real Estate Economics, 2004, pages 183-215.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0012

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Keywords: Commercial rents; Term structure;

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References

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  1. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2009. "An Empirical Test of a Contingent Claims Lease Valuation Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
  2. Hermalin, Benjamin E. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2010. "Information Disclosure and Corporate Governance," SIFR Research Report Series 76, Institute for Financial Research, revised 01 Jun 2011.
  3. Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research.
  4. Dreber, Anna & Rand, David G. & Garcia, Justin R. & Wernerfelt, Nils & Lum, J. Koji & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2010. "Dopamine and Risk Preferences in Different Domains," Working Paper Series rwp10-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Franz Fuerst & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Green Noise or Green Value? Measuring the Price Effects of Environmental Certification in Commercial Buildings," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-09, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  6. Shaun Bond & Pavlos Loizou & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Lease Maturity and Initial Rent: Is There a Term Structure for UK Commercial Property Leases?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 451-469, May.
  7. Peter Englund & Ake Gunnelin & Patric H. Hendershott & Bo Soderberg, 2005. "Adjustment in Property Space Markets: Estimates from the Stockholm Office Market," NBER Working Papers 11345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rydqvist, Kristian, 2010. "Tax Arbitrage with Risk and Effort Aversion - Swedish Lottery Bonds 1970-1990," SIFR Research Report Series 70, Institute for Financial Research.

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