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Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates

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  • Clapham, Eric

    ()
    (Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Gunnelin, Åke

    ()
    (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)

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    Abstract

    We consider the term structure of lease rates in a general setting where both the interest rate and the short rent are stochastic. Our framework is applicable to any leasing market, but we focus on real estate. We find that the “expectations hypothesis” of lease rates, i.e. that the forward rent is an unbiased estimator of the future short rent, requires similar assumptions as in interest rate theory to hold. To study the magnitude of the bias we parameterize our general framework. The simulations show that different realistic parameter values for risk aversion and interest rate stochastics can generate widely different shapes of the rental term structure, holding the objective rental expectations constant. As a result, an expected increase in rent may very well be consistent with a downward-sloping term structure and vice versa.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute for Financial Research in its series SIFR Research Report Series with number 16.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: 13 Oct 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0016

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    Related research

    Keywords: Term structure of lease rates; Rental expectations; Expectations hypothesis; Lease valuation;

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    References

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    1. Steven R. Grenadier, 2003. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate," NBER Working Papers 9475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 1994. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," NBER Working Papers 4720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Englund & �ke Gunnelin & Martin Hoesli & Bo Söderberg, 2004. "Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 183-215, 06.
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    5. Miceli, Thomas J. & Sirmans, C. F., 1999. "Tenant Turnover, Rental Contracts, and Self-Selection," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 301-311, December.
    6. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July.
    7. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    8. Grenadier, Steven R., 1996. "Leasing and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 333-364, November.
    9. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387.
    10. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1976. "Leasing, Buying, and the Cost of Capital Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 761-86, June.
    11. McConnell, John J. & Schallheim, James S., 1983. "Valuation of asset leasing contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 237-261, August.
    12. Gunnelin, Åke & Söderberg, Bo, 2002. "Term Structures in the Office Rental Market in Stockholm," SIFR Research Report Series 6, Institute for Financial Research.
    13. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Seko, Miki & Sumita, Kazuto & Yoshida, Jiro, 2012. "Downward-sloping term structure of lease rates: a puzzle," MPRA Paper 37395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Shaun Bond & Pavlos Loizou & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Lease Maturity and Initial Rent: Is There a Term Structure for UK Commercial Property Leases?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 451-469, May.
    3. Golbeck, Steven & Linetsky, Vadim, 2013. "Asset financing with credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 43-59.
    4. Brent Ambrose & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 281-298, October.

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