The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis
AbstractThis paper investigates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish real economy. In order to do this, an index which describes the financial conditions of the Swedish economy is developed. The index indicates that domestic Swedish financial conditions have deteriorated substan-tially during 2008 and are now at the highest level since the crisis of the early 1990’s. A Bayesian VAR model with both US and Swedish variables is used to assess the quantitative effects of the financial crisis on Swedish real GDP growth. Results suggest that the Swedish economy will grow substantially slower in the next couple of years due to the financial crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Paper with number 110.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 28 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Institute of Economic Research, P.O. Box 3116, SE-103 62 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 46-(0)8-453 59 00
Fax: 46-(0)8-453 59 80
Web page: http://www.konj.se/
More information through EDIRC
GDP growth; Bayesian VAR;
Other versions of this item:
- Par Osterholm, 2010. "The effect on the Swedish real economy of the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 265-274.
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-03-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2009-03-28 (European Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2009-03-28 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2009-03-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2009-03-28 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
- Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2001.
"Financial conditions indexes,"
Research Discussion Papers
17/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006.
"Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads,"
Research Department Publications
4445, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Meredith Beechey & P�R �Sterholm, 2008. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model with Informative Steady-state Priors for the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 449-465, December.
- repec:fth:bfdipa:17/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Henrik Hellström).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.