IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/han/dpaper/dp-620.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Tail Risk and World Fear

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno
  • Prokopczuk, Marcel
  • Wese Simen, Chardin

Abstract

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail risk. World fear is also priced in the crosssection of stock returns. Buying stocks with high sensitivities to World Fear while selling stocks with low sensitivities generates excess returns of up to 2.72% per month.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "International Tail Risk and World Fear," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-620, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-620.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiang, George J. & Yao, Tong, 2013. "Stock Price Jumps and Cross-Sectional Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(5), pages 1519-1544, October.
    2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Xu, Lai, 2015. "Tail risk premia and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 113-134.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    7. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    8. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
    9. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
    10. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    12. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    13. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    14. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2004. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 16(2‐3), pages 136-146, March.
    15. Edison, Hali J. & Levine, Ross & Ricci, Luca & Slok, Torsten, 2002. "International financial integration and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 749-776, November.
    16. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
    17. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    18. Goyal, Amit & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Cross-section of option returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 310-326, November.
    19. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    20. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    22. Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2011. "The world price of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 136-161, January.
    23. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2012. "Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 53-66.
    25. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2014. "Editor's Choice Tail Risk and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2841-2871.
    26. Lesmond, David A., 2005. "Liquidity of emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 411-452, August.
    27. Bollerslev, Tim & Marrone, James & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 633-661, June.
    28. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    29. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    30. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    31. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    32. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    33. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    34. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119.
    35. John M. Griffin & Patrick J. Kelly & Federico Nardari, 2010. "Do Market Efficiency Measures Yield Correct Inferences? A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3225-3277, August.
    36. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2013. "International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1633-1662, August.
    37. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    38. Martijn Cremers & Michael Halling & David Weinbaum, 2015. "Aggregate Jump and Volatility Risk in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 577-614, April.
    39. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    40. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing, 2013. "Cross section of option returns and idiosyncratic stock volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 231-249.
    41. Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2020. "The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence From International Option Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 662-678, July.
    42. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Ozgur S. Ince & R. Burt Porter, 2006. "Individual Equity Return Data From Thomson Datastream: Handle With Care!," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 463-479, December.
    44. Kewei Hou & G. Andrew Karolyi & Bong-Chan Kho, 2011. "What Factors Drive Global Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2527-2574.
    45. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    46. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    47. Hou, Kewei & Loh, Roger K., 2016. "Have we solved the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 167-194.
    48. Fernandez de Guevara, Juan & Maudos, Joaquin & Perez, Francisco, 2007. "Integration and competition in the European financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 26-45, February.
    49. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
    50. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2003. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-199, July.
    51. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    52. John M. Griffin, 2002. "Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country Specific?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 783-803.
    53. Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
    54. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    55. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    56. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2015. "Contagion and banking crisis – International evidence for 2007–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-283.
    57. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    58. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    59. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    60. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    61. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    62. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Monotonicity in asset returns: New tests with applications to the term structure, the CAPM, and portfolio sorts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 605-625, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2023. "Climate risks and U.S. stock‐market tail risks: A forecasting experiment using over a century of data," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 228-244, June.
    2. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2023. "Tail risks and forecastability of stock returns of advanced economies: evidence from centuries of data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 466-481, March.
    3. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and forecastability of tail risk in the oil market: Evidence from over a century of monthly data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    5. Lee, Kuan-Hui & Yang, Cheol-Won, 2022. "The world price of tail risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Stoja, Evarist & Polanski, Arnold & Nguyen, Linh H. & Pereverzin, Aleksandr, 2023. "Does systematic tail risk matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Alcock, Jamie & Sinagl, Petra, 2022. "International determinants of asymmetric dependence in investment returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Forecasting stock-market tail risk and connectedness in advanced economies over a century: The role of gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Predictability of tail risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The role of spillovers and oil tail Risks☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices over 150 years: The role of tail risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Hollstein, Fabian & Sejdiu, Vulnet, 2023. "Probability distortions, collectivism, and international stock prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    12. Qian, Lihua & Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng, 2022. "Global tail risk and oil return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    13. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & Pierdzioch, Christian & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Disaggregated oil shocks and stock-market tail risks: Evidence from a panel of 48 economics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Predictability of Tail Risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The Role of Spillovers and Oil Tail Risks," Working Papers 202127, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng & Christian Pierdzioch & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Disaggregated Oil Shocks and Stock-Market Tail Risks: Evidence from a Panel of 48 Countries," Working Papers 202106, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Kuan-Hui & Yang, Cheol-Won, 2022. "The world price of tail risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. José Afonso Faias & Tiago Castel-Branco, 2018. "Out-Of-Sample Stock Return Prediction Using Higher-Order Moments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(06), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    4. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Liquidity and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "The memory of stock return volatility: Asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    6. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2021. "Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    9. Qingjing Zhang & Taufiq Choudhry & Jing-Ming Kuo & Xiaoquan Liu, 2021. "Does liquidity drive stock market returns? The role of investor risk aversion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 929-958, October.
    10. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    11. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Tobek, Ondrej & Hronec, Martin, 2021. "Does it pay to follow anomalies research? Machine learning approach with international evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    13. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Country governance and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Hollstein, Fabian, 2022. "The world of anomalies: Smaller than we think?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Biao Guo & Hai Lin, 2020. "Volatility and jump risk in option returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1767-1792, November.
    16. Stereńczak, Szymon & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2020. "Is there an illiquidity premium in frontier markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    17. Pyun, Sungjune, 2019. "Variance risk in aggregate stock returns and time-varying return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 150-174.
    18. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Beta uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Weigert, Florian, 2013. "Crash Aversion and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns Worldwide," Working Papers on Finance 1325, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Nov 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jump Risk; Tail Risk; International Stock Market Returns; Return Predictability; International Asset Pricing; Factor Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Heidrich, Christian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwhande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.