Nonlinear Mechanism of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Does Business Cycle Matter?
AbstractThis paper examines the presence of nonlinear mechanism in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to CPI inflation for 12 euro area (EA) countries. Using logistic smooth transition models, we explore the existence of nonlinearity with respect to economic activity along the business cycle. Our results provide a strong evidence of nonlinearity in 6 out of 12 EA countries with significant differences in the degree of ERPT between the periods of expansion and recession. However, we find no clear direction in this regime-dependence of pass-through to business cycle. In some countries, ERPT is higher during expansions than in recessions; however, in other countries, this result is reversed. These cross-country differences in the nonlinear mechanism of pass-through would have important implications for the design of monetary policy and the control of inflation in the EA context.
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Date of creation: 10 Sep 2012
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Inflation; Smooth Transition Regression;
Other versions of this item:
- Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine, 2012. "Nonlinear mechanism of the exchange rate pass-through: Does business cycle matter?," MPRA Paper 41179, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2013. "Nonlinear Mechanism of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Does Business Cycle Matter?," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201306, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2012-09-30 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2012-09-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-09-30 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2012-09-30 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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