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Nonlinear Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Ukraine

Author

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  • Oleksandr Faryna

    (National Bank of Ukraine
    National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy)

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Ukraine considering nonlinearities with respect to the size and direction of exchange rate movements. We use disaggregated consumer price data and employ a panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) including threshold parameters to account for nonlinearities in the ERPT mechanism. We then compute dynamic ERPT coefficients taking into account inflation and exchange rate persistence. Estimation results suggest that the pass-through effect to core consumer prices is higher from currency depreciation than in the case of appreciation. On the contrary, we find that raw food prices are much more sensitive to appreciations. We also find that price responsiveness to small, medium, and large exchange rate changes is nonlinear. In particular, we provide evidence that prices are sensitive to small and extremely large changes, but the pass-through effect is insignificant if exchange rate movements are moderate.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleksandr Faryna, 2016. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 236, pages 30-42, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2016:i:236:p:30-42
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2016.236.030
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Faryna, Oleksandr, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through and cross-country spillovers: Some evidence from Ukraine and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Oleksandr Faryna & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera & Andriy Tsapin, 2020. "Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    4. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Lin, 2022. "Female small business owners in China: Discouraged, not discriminated," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Kuznetsov, Aleksei & Berdigulova, Aigul, 2019. "EDB Special report 2019. Exchange rate pass-through effects on inflation in EDB Member Countries," Working Papers 2019-7, Eurasian Development Bank, Chief Economist Group.
    6. Anton Grui & Artem Vdovychenko, 2019. "Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine," Working Papers 03/2019, National Bank of Ukraine.
    7. Oleksandr Faryna, 2016. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 236, pages 30-42, June.
    8. Faryna, Oleksandr, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through and cross-country spillovers: Some evidence from Ukraine and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Safet Kurtović & Nehat Maxhuni & Blerim Halili & Sead Talović, 2021. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass‐through into import prices of Slovenia's manufacturing sector," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4609-4633, July.
    10. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "What Do We Know of Exchange Rate Pass Through?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:5, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    11. Dmytro Krukovets & Olesia Verchenko, 2019. "Short-Run Forecasting of Core Inflation in Ukraine: a Combined ARMA Approach," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 248, pages 11-20.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; inflation; Ukraine; nonlinear ERPT; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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