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Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Anton Grui

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Artem Vdovychenko

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

This paper introduces the Quarterly Projection Model utilized by the National Bank of Ukraine to make its regular macroeconomic forecasts and monetary policy recommendations. The model is a semi-structural representation of an open-economy New-Keynesian general equilibrium model. It captures the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the context of the Ukrainian economy. Among the economy’s key features are the disinflation agenda, heterogeneous prices, imperfect monetary policy credibility, high openness and dollarization.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Grui & Artem Vdovychenko, 2019. "Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine," Working Papers 03/2019, National Bank of Ukraine.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:wpaper:03/2019
    as

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    File URL: https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/WP_2019_03_Grui_Vdovychenko.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    15. Anton Grui & Volodymyr Lepushynskyi & Sergiy Nikolaychuk, 2018. "A Neutral Real Interest Rate in the Case of a Small Open Economy: Application to Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 243, pages 4-20.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anton Grui, 2020. "Uncovered interest parity with foreign exchange interventions under exchange rate peg and inflation targeting: The case of Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 14-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Dmytro Krukovets & Olesia Verchenko, 2019. "Short-Run Forecasting of Core Inflation in Ukraine: a Combined ARMA Approach," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 248, pages 11-20.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National Bank of Ukraine; inflation targeting; monetary policy; projection model; monetary policy transmission mechanism in Ukraine.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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