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Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Author

Listed:
  • Karel Musil
  • Mikhail Pranovich
  • Mr. Jan Vlcek

Abstract

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Karel Musil & Mikhail Pranovich & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/254
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    1. Chandranath Amarasekara & Rahul Anand & Kithsiri Ehelepola & Hemantha Ekanayake & Vishuddhi Jayawickrema & Sujeetha Jegajeevan & Csaba Kober & Tharindi Nugawela & Sergey Plotnikov & Adam Remo & Poongo, 2018. "An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2018/149, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alex Miksjuk & Mr. Sam Ouliaris & Mikhail Pranovich, 2015. "The Game of Anchors: Studying the Causes of Currency Crises in Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2015/281, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    4. Michal Andrle & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Enrico G Berkes & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek & Mr. R. Armando Morales, 2013. "Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya," IMF Working Papers 2013/239, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andres Gonzalez & Alexander Guarin & Diego A. Rodriguez-Guzman & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1106, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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