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Introducing Macro-Financial Variables into a Semi-Structural Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dominika Ehrenbergerova
  • Simona Malovana

Abstract

This paper outlines a flexible and consistent model-based framework suitable for forecasting selected macro-financial variables of the Czech economy and conducting policy analysis to support the decision-making process. We enhance an existing semi-structural model of the Czech economy in order to replicate some of the characteristics of the financial cycle, i.e. co-movement between credit and house prices, higher persistence of respective macro-financial variables and a pronounced impact of shocks on the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Simona Malovana, 2019. "Introducing Macro-Financial Variables into a Semi-Structural Model," Working Papers 2019/6, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2019/6
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2019_06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    4. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Kadareja, Arjan & Kok, Christoffer & Protopapa, Marco, 2010. "Do bank loans and credit standards have an effect on output? A panel approach for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1150, European Central Bank.
    6. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Francesco Columba, 2016. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interactions in a DSGE Model for Sweden," IMF Working Papers 2016/074, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Stremmel, Hanno, 2015. "Capturing the financial cycle in Europe," Working Paper Series 1811, European Central Bank.
    8. Mihail Petkovski & Jordan Kjosevski & Kiril Jovanovski, 2018. "Empirical Panel Analysis of Non-performing Loans in the Czech Republic. What are their Determinants and How Strong is their Impact on the Real Economy?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(5), pages 460-490, October.
    9. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2014. "The Czech Housing Market Through the Lens of a DSGE Model Containing Collateral-Constrained Households," Working Papers 2014/09, Czech National Bank.
    10. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Kevin Clinton & Asish George & Pranav Gupta & Joice John & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Pratik Mitra & G.V. Nadhanael & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Hou Wang & Fan Zhang, 2017. "Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties," IMF Working Papers 2017/033, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rafael Ravnik & Nikola Bokan, 2018. "Quarterly Projection Model for Croatia," Surveys 34, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Arroyo Marioli & Juan Sebastián Becerra & Matías Solorza, 2021. "The Credit Channel Through the Lens of a Semi- Structural Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 911, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Tosapol Apaitan & Savaphol Hiruntiaranakul & Nuwat Nookhwun, 2021. "Revisiting Thailand's Monetary Policy Model for an Integrated Policy Analysis," PIER Discussion Papers 164, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial cycle; forecasting; macro-financial variables; semi-structural model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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