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Formalization and applications of the Precautionary Principle

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  • Claude Henry

    (CECO - Laboratoire d'econometrie de l'école polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7657 - Polytechnique - X)

  • Marc Henry

    (Columbia Univesity)

Abstract

Une formalisation du Principe de Précaution est donnée ici : nous formalisons la connaissance scientifique relative à la plausibilité d'évènements dans l'espace des états, ainsi que les concepts d'évènements et d'actes scientifiquements non ambigus. Nous définissons un plannificateur non précautionneux comme maximisant une utilité espérée de Savage après avoir écarté les actes scientifiquement ambigus. Nous montrons que pour une classe étendue de préférences de l'agent représentatif dans cette économie, cette modalité de choix non précautionneuse est sous-optimale. Nous confrontons cette modélisation à des débats, nationaux ou internationaux, concernant le changement climatique, certains arbitrages à l'OMC, et la régulation en matière de sécurité des produits chimiques.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00243001.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00243001

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Related research

Keywords: Ambiguité; Evènements objectivement non ambigus; Précaution;

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References

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  1. Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G., 1993. "Global Environmental Risks," Discussion Papers 1993_03, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Ramon Casadesus-Masanell & Peter Klibanoff & Emre Ozdenoren, 1998. "Maximum Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors," Discussion Papers 1218, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June.
  4. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
  5. Massimiliano Amarante, 2003. "Ambiguity, Measurability and Multiple Priors," Discussion Papers 0203-23, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
  7. Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1143, Econometric Society.
  8. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-50, May.
  9. Larry G. Epstein & Jiankang Zhang, 1999. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Carleton Economic Papers 99-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  10. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  11. Epstein, L.G. & Zhang, J., 1998. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectivity Unambiguous Event," RCER Working Papers 456, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  12. repec:fth:coluec:645 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  14. Olivier Godard, 2005. "The precautionary principle. Between social norms and economic constructs," Working Papers hal-00243008, HAL.
  15. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
  16. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
  17. Adriana Castaldo & Massimo Marinacci, 2001. "Random correspndences as bundles of random variables," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 12-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  18. Timothy O'Riordan & Andrew Jordan, 1995. "The Precautionary Principle in Contemporary Environmental Politics," Environmental Values, White Horse Press, vol. 4(3), pages 191-212, August.
  19. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November.
  20. Cohen, M. & Tallon, J.M., 1999. "Decision dans le risque et l'incertitude:l'apport des modeles non additifs," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 1999.69, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Geoffrey Heal, 2008. "Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions," NBER Working Papers 13927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2010. "Ambiguity and Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 16050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.
  4. Basili, Marcello & Chateauneuf, Alain & Fontini, Fulvio, 2008. "Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 485-491, October.
  5. Tania BOUGLET & Thomas LANZI & J.-C. VERGNAUD, 2006. "Incertitude scientifique et décision publique : le recours au Principe de précaution," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Pauline Barrieu & Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2003. "The Paradox of Precaution," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-63, CIRANO.
  7. Marcello Basili & Mauriziop Franzini, 2005. "The Avian Flu Disease: A Case of Precautionary Failure," Department of Economics University of Siena 454, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  8. Simon Dietz, 2009. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37612, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Simon Dietz, 2009. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 9, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  10. Simon Dietz, 2011. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 519-541, October.
  11. Martin Weitzman, 2013. "A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 159-173, June.
  12. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00150931 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Geoffrey Heal & Bengt Kriström, 2002. "Uncertainty and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 3-39, June.

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