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Formalization and applications of the Precautionary Principle

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  • Claude Henry

    (CECO - Laboratoire d'econometrie de l'école polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7657 - Polytechnique - X)

  • Marc Henry

    (Columbia Univesity)

Abstract

Une formalisation du Principe de Précaution est donnée ici : nous formalisons la connaissance scientifique relative à la plausibilité d'évènements dans l'espace des états, ainsi que les concepts d'évènements et d'actes scientifiquements non ambigus. Nous définissons un plannificateur non précautionneux comme maximisant une utilité espérée de Savage après avoir écarté les actes scientifiquement ambigus. Nous montrons que pour une classe étendue de préférences de l'agent représentatif dans cette économie, cette modalité de choix non précautionneuse est sous-optimale. Nous confrontons cette modélisation à des débats, nationaux ou internationaux, concernant le changement climatique, certains arbitrages à l'OMC, et la régulation en matière de sécurité des produits chimiques.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00243001.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00243001

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Keywords: Ambiguité; Evènements objectivement non ambigus; Précaution;

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References

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  1. repec:fth:coluec:645 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June.
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  4. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November.
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  9. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
  10. Ramon Casadesus-Masanell & Peter Klibanoff & Emre Ozdenoren, 1998. "Maximum Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors," Discussion Papers 1218, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  11. Gollier & Jullien & Treich, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility : an economic interpretation of the Precautionary principle," Working Papers 156240, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  12. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-50, May.
  13. Olivier Godard, 2005. "The precautionary principle. Between social norms and economic constructs," Working Papers hal-00243008, HAL.
  14. Cohen, M. & Tallon, J.M., 1999. "Decision dans le risque et l'incertitude:l'apport des modeles non additifs," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 1999.69, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  15. Graciela Chichilnisky & Geoffrey Heal, 1993. "Global Environmental Risks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 65-86, Fall.
  16. Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7616, David K. Levine.
  17. Massimiliano Amarante, 2005. "Ambiguity, measurability and multiple priors," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 995-1006, November.
  18. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  19. Epstein, Larry G & Zhang, Jiankang, 2001. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 265-306, March.
  20. Timothy O'Riordan & Andrew Jordan, 1995. "The Precautionary Principle in Contemporary Environmental Politics," Environmental Values, White Horse Press, vol. 4(3), pages 191-212, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Simon Dietz, 2009. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 9, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  2. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2010. "Ambiguity and climate policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Martin Weitzman, 2013. "A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 159-173, June.
  4. Marcello Basili & Mauriziop Franzini, 2005. "The Avian Flu Disease: A Case of Precautionary Failure," Department of Economics University of Siena 454, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  5. Geoffrey Heal & Bengt Kriström, 2002. "Uncertainty and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 3-39, June.
  6. Tania BOUGLET & Thomas LANZI & J.-C. VERGNAUD, 2006. "Incertitude scientifique et décision publique : le recours au Principe de précaution," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  7. Simon Dietz, 2009. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37612, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00150931 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.
  10. Geoffrey Heal, 2008. "Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions," NBER Working Papers 13927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Basili, Marcello & Chateauneuf, Alain & Fontini, Fulvio, 2008. "Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 485-491, October.
  12. Simon Dietz, 2011. "High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 519-541, October.
  13. Pauline Barrieu & Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2003. "The Paradox of Precaution," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-63, CIRANO.

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