Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events
AbstractThis paper suggests a behavioral definition of (subjective) ambiguity in an abstract setting where objects of choice are Savage-style acts. Then axioms are described that deliver probabilistic sophistication of preference on the set of unambiguous acts. In particular, both the domain and the values of the decision-maker's probability measure are derived from preference. It is argued that the noted result also provides a decision-theoretic foundation for the Knightian distinction between risk and ambiguity.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.
Volume (Year): 69 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Other versions of this item:
- Larry G. Epstein & Jiankang Zhang, 1999. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Carleton Economic Papers 99-18, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
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