Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses

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Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses

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Basili, Marcello
Chateauneuf, Alain
Fontini, Fulvio

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Abstract

The paper investigates a decision-making process involving both risk and ambiguity. Differently from existing papers [Basili, M., Chateauneuf, A., Fontini, F., 2005. Choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes, Theory and Decision 58, 195-207; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. Axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks. Resources and Energy Economics 22, 221-231; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. In: El-Shaarawi, A.,H., Piegorsch, W.W. (Eds.), Catastropic Risks. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, pp. 274-279], we assume that, in a Choquet Expected Utility framework, the decision-maker is pessimistic with respect to unfamiliar (catastrophic) losses, optimistic with respect to unfamiliar (windfall) gains and ambiguity-neutral with respect to the familiar world. A representation of the decision-maker's choice is obtained that mimics the Restricted Bayes-Hurwicz Criterion. In this way a characterization of the Precautionary Principle is introduced for decision-making processes under ambiguity with catastrophic losses and/or windfall gains.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

Volume (Year): 67 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 485-491
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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:67:y:2008:i:3:p:485-491

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Cited by:
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Marcello Basili, 2008. "The global strategy to cope with H5N1: the property rights caveat," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 0908, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
Fulvio Fontini & Georg Umgiesser & Lucia Vergano, 2008. "The Role of Ambiguity in the Evaluation of the Net Benefits of the MOSE System in the Venice Lagoon," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0080, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]

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