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Incertitude scientifique et décision publique : le recours au Principe de précaution

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Author Info

  • Tania BOUGLET

    (GEM, Insitut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris)

  • Thomas LANZI

    (ESC Lille, School of Management)

  • J.-C. VERGNAUD

    (EUREQua-CNRS, Université de Paris 1)

Abstract

Dans cet article, nous formalisons deux critères de décisions qui tentent de rendre compte de deux logiques différentes d'interprétation du Principe de précaution. Le premier critère correspond à la maximisation du minimum de l'espérance d'utilité alors que le second critère correspond à la minimisation du maximum de l'espérance de regret. Les deux critères de décisions sont appliqués à un problème économique où l'incertitude est mesurée par une famille de probabilités. Nous montrons qu'il existe un intervalle de probabilités sur lequel les choix relatifs aux deux critères divergent. Plus particulièrement, nous montrons que sur cet intervalle, le second critère à la différence du premier, conduit toujours à retenir la décision la plus précautionneuse, les décisions étant identiques sur les autres intervalles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2006021.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2006021

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Keywords: Décision publique; information; précaution;

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  1. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2004. "Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00086021, HAL.
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  3. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1987. "Some implications of a more general form of regret theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 270-287, April.
  4. Christian Gollier, 2001. "Should we beware of the Precautionary Principle?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 301-328, October.
  5. Gollier & Jullien & Treich, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility : an economic interpretation of the Precautionary principle," Working Papers, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France 156240, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  6. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-24, December.
  7. Claude Henry & Marc Henry, 2002. "Formalization and applications of the Precautionary Principle," Working Papers, HAL hal-00243001, HAL.
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