Decision makers facing uncertainty: Theory versus evidence
AbstractThis paper aims at assessing cultural differences in uncertainty attitude across Europe. We select questions from the European Values Survey (EVS) capturing salient features of uncertain scenarios ("safe versus uncertain", "freedom of choice" and "reduction of uncertainty"), and formalize these questions through simple decision-theoretic problems. We then consider three competing normative models of choice under uncertainty (subjective expected utility (SEU), maximin utility and minimax regret), and analyze how they behave when facing each decision problem. We obtain theoretical predictions and, using the EVS dataset, we test them via latent class analysis to estimate the distribution of these behaviors across EU15. We find a larger proportion of SEU maximizers (Bayesians) in northern countries than in southern countries. The opposite is true for maximin utility behavior. Only a few are consistent with minimax regret behavior.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Psychology.
Volume (Year): 31 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep
Uncertainty Maximin Minimax regret Bayesianism Cross-cultural differences European Values Survey Latent class analysis;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marciano Siniscalchi, 2006.
"Dynamic Choice Under Ambiguity,"
1430, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Guido Tabellini, 2007.
"Culture and Institutions: Economic Development in the Regions of Europe,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
321307000000000974, David K. Levine.
- Guido Tabellini, 2010. "Culture and Institutions: Economic Development in the Regions of Europe," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 677-716, 06.
- Guido Tabellini, 2010. "Culture and Institutions: Economic Development in the Regions of Europe," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 677-716, 06.
- Guido Tabellini, 2006. "Culture and institutions: economic development in the regions of Europe," Levine's Working Paper Archive 321307000000000241, David K. Levine.
- Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Culture and Institutions: economic development in the regions of Europe," Working Papers 292, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Culture and Institutions: Economic Development in the Regions of Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1492, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guido Tabellini, 2006. "Culture and institutions: economic development in the regions of Europe," Levine's Working Paper Archive 321307000000000466, David K. Levine.
- Harry G Barkema & Freek Vermeulen, 1997. "What Differences in the Cultural Backgrounds of Partners Are Detrimental for International Joint Ventures?," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(4), pages 845-864, December.
- Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales & Luigi Guiso, 2006.
"Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?,"
NBER Working Papers
11999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2000.
"The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development,"
CRSP working papers
511, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2004. "The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 526-556, June.
- Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2000. "The Role of Social Capital In Financial Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development," NBER Working Papers 7563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guido Cozzi & Paolo E. Giordani, .
"Ambiguity Attitude, R&D Investments and Economic Growth,"
2008_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Guido Cozzi & Paolo Giordani, 2011. "Ambiguity attitude, R&D investments and economic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 303-319, May.
- Jörg Stoye, 2011. "Statistical decisions under ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 129-148, February.
- Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
- Dirk Bergemann & Karl H Schlag, 2007.
"Pricing without Priors,"
122247000000001557, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Charles Manski, 2003.
"Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP03/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, 07.
- F J Anscombe & R J Aumann, 2000. "A Definition of Subjective Probability," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7591, David K. Levine.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-24, December.
- David Schmeidler, 1989.
"Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7662, David K. Levine.
- Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
- Rocco Huang, 2005.
"Tolerance For Uncertainty and the Growth of Informationally Opaque Industries,"
- Huang, Rocco R., 2008. "Tolerance for uncertainty and the growth of informationally opaque industries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 333-353, October.
- Zeelenberg, M., 1999. "Anticipated regret, expected feedback and behavioral decision-making," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-80656, Tilburg University.
- Shane, Scott, 1993. "Cultural influences on national rates of innovation," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 59-73, January.
- Rachel M. McCleary & Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Religion and Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 49-72, Spring.
- Van de Vliert, Evert & Kluwer, Esther S. & Lynn, Richard, 2000. "Citizens of warmer countries are more competitive and poorer: Culture or chance?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 143-165, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.