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Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information

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Author Info
Thibault Gajdos ()
Jean-Marc Tallon ()
Jean-Christophe Vergnaud ()

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Abstract

We develop an axiomatic approach to decision under uncertainty that explicitly takes into account the information available to the decision maker. The information is described by a set of priors and a reference prior. We define a notion of imprecision for this informational setting and show that a decision maker who is averse to information imprecision maximizes the minimum expected utility computed with respect to a subset of the set of initially given priors. The extent to which this set is reduced can be seen as a measure of imprecision aversion. This approach thus allows a lot of flexibility in modelling the decision maker attitude towards imprecision. In contrast, applying Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989) maxmin criterion to the initial set of priors amounts to assuming extreme pessimism.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series with number 18-2003.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2002
Date of revision: May 2003
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpmath:18-2003

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Related research
Keywords: Uncertainty; Decision; Multiple Priors;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Thibault Gajdos & John A. Weymark, 2003. "Multidimensional generalized Gini indices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 16-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2001. "A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels," Working Papers 1127, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2003. "Cores and stable sets of finite dimensional games," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 07-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Castagnoli, Erio & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Insurance premia consistent with the market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-284, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Domenico Menicucci, 2001. "Optimal two-object auctions with synergies," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 18-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Guido Cozzi & Fabio Privileggi, 2002. "Wealth Polarization and Pulverization in Fractal Societies," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 39-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Salvatore Modica & Marco Scarsini, 2003. "The convexity-cone approach to comparative risk and downside risk," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 01-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2004. "A characterization of the core of convex games through Gateaux derivatives," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 229-248, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Juan Dubra & Fabio Maccheroni & Efe Oki, 2001. "Expected utility theory without the completeness axiom," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Umberto Cherubini & Elisa Luciano, 2002. "Multivariate Option Pricing with Copulas," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 05-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  18. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2002. "Certainty Independence and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 40-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Gajdos, Thibault & Tallon, Jean-Marc & Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe, 2004. "Decision making with imprecise probabilistic information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 647-681, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Thibault Gajdos & Eric Maurin, 2002. "Unequal uncertainties and uncertain inequalities: an axiomatic approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 15-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised Mar 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2002. "A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised Apr 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Paolo Ghirardato & Massimo Marinacci, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 7616, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2003. "Ultramodular functions," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 13-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  24. Claudio Mattalia, 2003. "Existence of solutions and asset pricing bubbles in general equilibrium models," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 02-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  25. Enrico Diecidue & Fabio Maccheroni, 2002. "Coherence without Additivity," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 10-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  26. Jerome Renault & Sergio Scarlatti & Marco Scarsini, 2003. "A folk theorem for minority games," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 10-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Maitreesh Ghatak & Massimo Morelli & Tomas Sjoström, 2001. "Credit rationing, wealth inequality, and allocation of talent," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 23-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chambers, Christopher P. & Hayashi, Takashi, 2005. "Bayesian consistent prior selection," Working Papers 1238, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster & Stephen G. Walker, 2004. "On rates of convergence for posterior distributions in infinite–dimensional models," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 24-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2002. "Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 18-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised May 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Daniel Laskar, 2008. "Monetary policy uncertainty and macroeconomic performance: An extended non-bayesian framework," PSE Working Papers 2008-01, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  5. Thibault Gajdos & Takashi Hayashi & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2006. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v06081, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2002. "Coping with imprecise information : a decision theoretic approach," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04056, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), revised May 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster & Stephen G. Walker, 2004. "Contributions to the understanding of Bayesian consistency," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 13-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claude Henry, 2005. "Du risque à l'incertitude dans les modèles de décisions," Working Papers hal-00242967_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alfred Müller & Marco Scarsini, 2003. "Archimedean Copulae and Positive Dependence," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 25-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Thibault Gajdos & Feriel Kandil, 2006. "The Ignorant Observer," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115722_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster & Stephen G. Walker, 2004. "On consistency of nonparametric normal mixtures for Bayesian density estimation," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 23-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Raphaël Giraud, 2006. "Objective Imprecise Probabilistic Information, Second Order Beliefs and Ambiguity Aversion: an Axiomatization," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00102346_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gabrielle Demange, 2008. "Sharing aggregate risks under moral hazard," PSE Working Papers 2008-27, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  14. Taizhong Hu & Alfred Müller & Marco Scarsini, 2002. "Some Counterexamples in Positive Dependence," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 28-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
  15. Tigran Melkonyan & Mark Pingle, 2008. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, and Religious Choice," Working Papers 08-002, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics & University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tania Bouglet & Thomas Lanzi & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2006. "Incertitude scientifique et décision publique: le recours au Principe de Précaution," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00150931_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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