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Uncertainty and Climate Change

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Author Info
Geoffrey Heal ()
Bengt Kriström

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Abstract

Uncertainty is pervasive in analysis of climatechange. How should economists allow for this? And how have they allowed for it? This paperreviews both of these questions. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1015556632097
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Publisher Info
Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 3-39
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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:22:y:2002:i:1:p:3-39

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

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Related research
Keywords: climate change; risk; uncertainty;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Wietze Lise & Richard S.J. Tol, 2000. "Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand," Working Papers FNU-1, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2000. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:fth:coluec:616 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Malinvaud, E, 1969. "First Order Certainty Equivalence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(4), pages 706-18, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G., 1992. "Financial Markets for Unknown Risks," Discussion Papers 1992_31, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G., 1993. "Global Environmental Risks," Discussion Papers 1993_03, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  7. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D., 2001. "Malthus and Climate Change: Betting on a Stable Population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 135-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Roughgarden, Tim & Schneider, Stephen H., 1999. "Climate change policy: quantifying uncertainties for damages and optimal carbon taxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 415-429, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Malinvaud, E., 1972. "The allocation of individual risks in large markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 312-328, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-233, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Heal, G., 1998. "Valuing the Future: Economic Theory and Sustainability," Papers 98-10, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  12. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kenneth J. Arrow, . "Intergenerational Equity and the Rate of Discount in Long-Term Social Investment," Working Papers 97005, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Malinvaud, E, 1973. "Markets for an Exchange Economy with Individual Risks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(3), pages 383-410, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Toman, Michael, 2003. "Economic Analysis and the Formulation of U.S. Climate Policy," Discussion Papers dp-02-59, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  17. Klaus Keller & Kelvin Tan & Francois M.M. Morel & David F. Bradford, 2000. "Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Working papers WP 4047-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Pizer, William, 1997. "Optimal Choice of Policy Instrument and Stringency Under Uncertainty: The Case of Climate Change," Discussion Papers dp-97-17, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  21. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Claude Henry & Marc Henry, 2002. "Formalization and applications of the Precautionary Principle," Working Papers hal-00243001_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Maddison, David & Bigano, Andrea, 2003. "The amenity value of the Italian climate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 319-332, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Arrow, Kenneth J & Lind, Robert C, 1970. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 364-78, June.
  26. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Belratti, Andrea & Heal, Geoffrey, 1998. "Uncertain future preferences and conservation," MPRA Paper 7912, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  27. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Ayong Le Kama, A. & Schubert, K., 1999. "Growth, Environment and Uncertain Future Preferences," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 1999.52, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. B. Sudhakara Reddy & Gaudenz B. Assenza, 2008. "The Great climate debate : A Developing country perspective," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India. [Downloadable!]
  2. S. Prabhakar & Ancha Srinivasan & Rajib Shaw, 2009. "Climate change and local level disaster risk reduction planning: need, opportunities and challenges," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 7-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heikkila, Jaakko & Peltola, Jukka, 2005. "Agricultural Production with Change and Uncertainty: A Temporal Case Study Simulation of Colorado Potato Beetle," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24679, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vincent Boucher & Yann Bramoullé, 2007. "Risk Aversion and International Environmental Agreements," Cahiers de recherche 0739, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alain Le Kama & Katheline Schubert, 2004. "Growth, Environment and Uncertain Future Preferences," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(1), pages 31-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Sonja Peterson, 2004. "The Contribution of Economics to the Analysis of Climate Change and Uncertainty: A Survey of Approaches and Findings," Kiel Working Papers 1212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Geoffrey Heal, 2008. "Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions," NBER Working Papers 13927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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