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Financial Integration and Growth in a Risky World

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  • Nicolas Coeurdacier

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

  • Hélène Rey

    (London Business School, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Pablo Winant

    (Bank of England - Bank of England)

Abstract

We revisit the debate on the benefits of financial integration in a two-country neoclassical growth model with aggregate uncertainty. The framework accounts simultaneously for gains from a more efficient capital allocation and gains from risk sharing—together with their interaction. Global numerical methods allow for meaningful welfare comparisons. Gains from integration are quantitatively small, even for riskier and capital scarce emerging economies. These countries import capital for efficiency reasons before exporting it for self-insurance, leading to capital flows and growth reversals along the transition. This opens the door to richer empirical implications than previously considered in the literature.

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  • Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey & Pablo Winant, 2020. "Financial Integration and Growth in a Risky World," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03799686, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03799686
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.022
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    Cited by:

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    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2015. "International Credit Flows and Pecuniary Externalities," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 297-338, January.
    3. Michael Donadelli & Patrick Grüning & Aurelija Proskute, 2019. "Monetary policy, trade, and endogenous growth under different international financial market structures," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 57, Bank of Lithuania.
    4. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Hanno Lustig & Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 19623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lustig, Hanno & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2016. "Nominal Exchange Rate Stationarity and Long-Term Bond Returns," Research Papers 3411, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    7. McKay, Alisdair, 2017. "Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Isabel Schnabel & Christian Seckinger, 2014. "Financial Fragmentation and Economic Growth in Europe," Working Papers 1502, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 13 Feb 2014.
    9. Rabitsch, Katrin & Stepanchuk, Serhiy & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2015. "International portfolios: A comparison of solution methods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 404-422.
    10. Anne Epaulard & Aude Pommeret, 2016. "Financial Integration, Growth and Volatility," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 330-357, August.
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2020. "A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2288-2328.
    12. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2015. "Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-15.
    13. Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Billions on the Sidewalk: Improving Savings by Reducing Investment Mistakes," IHEID Working Papers 18-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "The great moderation in international capital flows: A global phenomenon?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 188-212.
    15. Kei-Ichiro Inaba, 2018. "Global Stock Return Comovements: Trends and Determinants," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    16. Bhattacharya, Mita & Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Valenzuela, Maria Rebecca, 2018. "Financial integration in Africa: New evidence using network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 379-390.
    17. Aidi Tang, 2023. "Financial Integration and International Dynamics: The Role of Volatility Shocks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-27, November.
    18. Malamud, Semyon & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Market Integration and Global Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 11468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Mathias Hoffmann & Egor Maslov & Bent E. Sørensen & Iryna Stewen, 2018. "Are banking and capital markets union complements? Evidence from channels of risk sharing in the eurozone," ECON - Working Papers 311, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    20. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Information-driven stock return comovements across countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    21. Mathias Hoffmann & Egor Maslov & Bent E. Sørensen & Iryna Stewen, 2019. "Channels of Risk Sharing in the Eurozone: What Can Banking and Capital Market Union Achieve?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 443-495, September.
    22. Flavia Corneli, 2017. "Medium and long term implications of financial integration without financial development," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1120, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Hazwan Haini & Lutfi Abdul Razak & Pang Wei Loon & Sufrizul Husseini, 2023. "Re-examining the finance–institutions–growth nexus: does financial integration matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1895-1924, June.
    24. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla, 2023. "Stock market correlation and geographical distance: does the degree of economic integration matter?," MPRA Paper 116476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Kei-Ichiro Inaba, 2020. "A global look into stock market comovements," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 517-555, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial integration; Capital flows; Risky steady-state; Global solutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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