This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Paul Gomme () (Department of Economics, Concordia University)
B. Ravikumar () (Department of Economics, University of Iowa)
Peter Rupert () (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We measure the return to capital directly from the NIPA and BEA data and examine the return implications of the real business cycle model. Specifically, we construct a quarterly time series of the after-tax return to business capital. The business cycle properties of this return differs considerably from those of the S&P 500 returns. First, its volatility is considerably smaller than that of S\&P 500 returns. Second, our measured return is procyclical and leads output by one quarter; S&P 500 returns are countercyclical and lead the cycle by four quarters. The standard business cycle model captures almost 50% of the volatility in the return to capital (relative to the volatility of output), and does well in capturing the lead-lag pattern. We consider several departures from the benchmark model; the model with stochastic taxes captures nearly 85% of the relative volatility in the return to capital and the model with high risk aversion captures 80% of the relative volatility. We then include capital gains in our measurement and use a model with investment specific technological change to address the higher volatility in the return to capital. This model accounts for more than 80% of the return volatility, and essentially all of the relative volatility.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://alcor.concordia.ca/~pgomme/grr-2008-04-07.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Concordia University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 08002.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crd:wpaper:08002

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1455, de Maisonneuve Blvd, Montr�al, Qu�bec, H3G 1M8
Phone: (514) 848-3900
Fax: (514) 848-4536
Web page: http://economics.concordia.ca
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Economics Department).

Related research
Keywords: return to capital; business cycles; asset returns;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

This item is featured on the following reading lists:
  1. Canadian Macro Study Group
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z., 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time Over the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers 268, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    Other versions:
  3. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 392-397, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David Carey & Harry Tchilinguirian, 2000. "Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 258, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul Gomme & Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2001. "Home Production Meets Time to Build," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1115-1131, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ellen McGrattan & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1995. "An equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy," Staff Report 191, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Paul Gomme & Peter Rupert, 2005. "Theory, measurement, and calibration of macroeconomic models," Working Paper 0505, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Greenwood, J. & Rogerson, R. & Wright, R., 1993. "Household Production in Real Business Cycle Thoery," RCER Working Papers 347, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  16. Rupert, Peter & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1995. "Estimating Substitution Elasticities in Household Production Models," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 179-93, June.
    Other versions:
  17. Poterba, James M., 1998. "The rate of return to corporate capital and factor shares: new estimates using revised national income accounts and capital stock data," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 211-246, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 9373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Claudio Campanale & Gian Luca Clementi & Rui Castro, 2008. "Asset Pricing in a General Equilibrium Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Risk Preferences," Working Papers. Serie AD 2008-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  2. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "Housing, home production, and the equity and value premium puzzles," International Finance Discussion Papers 931, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, . "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Enchuan Shao & Pedro Silos, 2008. "Firm entry and labor market dynamics," Working Paper 2008-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can import bibliographic info in various formats into you bibliographic tool, or just into your word processor. See under "publisher info" on each abstract page.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.