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What if energy decoupling of emerging economies were not so spontaneous? An illustrative example on India

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  • Sandrine Mathy

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech)

  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech)

Abstract

Reference GHG emissions scenarios are critical for estimates of the costs of stabilization and for climate policy recommendations. But recently, existing reference scenarios, notably the SRES, have been the target of criticisms that question their relevance in the light of current emissions trends, dispute the suitability, for developing countries, of the modeling methodologies used and suggest they convey too optimistic views on spontaneous energy decoupling of emerging countries economies. This article focuses on an illustrative example on India. It proposes an alternative reference scenario built with a modeling framework representing as realistically as possible the processes driving energy intensity and carbon intensity changes, in particular accounting for the interactions between energy systems and economic constraints and capturing the sub-optimalities of the energy sector. The mechanisms leading to moderate energy decoupling in this alternative scenario are analysed. From a methodological point of view, our results call for the improvement of the realism of modeling tools for scenarios elaboration. From a mitigation point of view, it appears that the challenge for climate policies to lift the barriers to the diffusion of energy efficiency improvement in India is considerable, but we identify a potential for synergies between development policies and climate policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00366274.

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Date of creation: 06 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00366274

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Keywords: India; energy-GDP decoupling; investment constraint; power sector; reference scenario;

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Cited by:
  1. Mathy, Sandrine & Guivarch, Céline, 2010. "Climate policies in a second-best world--A case study on India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1519-1528, March.

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