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Leveraged Borrowing and Boom-Bust Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick A. Pintus

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yi Wen

    (Department of Pharmacology and Neuroscience - University of North Texas Health Science Center [Fort Worth])

Abstract

Investment booms and asset "bubbles" are often the consequence of heavily leveraged borrowing and speculations of persistent growth in asset demand. We show theoretically that dynamic interactions between elastic credit supply (due to leveraged borrowing) and persistent credit demand (due to consumption habit) can generate a multiplier-accelerator mechanism that transforms a one-time productivity or financial shock into large and long-lasting boom-bust cycles. The predictions are consistent with the basic features of investment booms and the consequent asset-market crashes led by excessive credit expansion. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick A. Pintus & Yi Wen, 2013. "Leveraged Borrowing and Boom-Bust Cycles," Post-Print hal-01500891, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01500891
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2012.09.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Pintus & Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing, 2019. "International credit markets and global business cycles," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 15(1), pages 53-75, March.
    2. Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing & Patrick Pintus, 2016. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loans, and the Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Feng Dong & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2016. "Credit search and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 215-239, February.
    4. Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2019. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 123-146, January.
    5. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2022. "The inverted leading indicator property and redistribution effect of the interest rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Khan, Hashmat & Rouillard, Jean-François, 2018. "Household borrowing constraints and residential investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen, 2016. "Relative Income Traps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(1), pages 41-60.
    8. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2020. "Discount Shock, Price–Rent Dynamics, And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1229-1252, August.
    9. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2018. "Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 221-251, April.
    10. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2014. "Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Martin Guzman & Peter Howitt, 2016. "Learning, Expectations, and the Financial Instability Hypothesis," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Martin Guzman (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 50-60, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Luke Petach, 2020. "Local financialization, household debt, and the great recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(3), pages 807-839, June.
    13. Patrick A. Pintus & Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing, 2015. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loan Contracts, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2015-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Pintus, P. A. & Suda, J., 2013. "Learning Leverage Shocks and the Great Recession," Working papers 440, Banque de France.
    15. Yi Wen, 2015. "The Making of an Economic Superpower―Unlocking China’s Secret of Rapid Industrialization," Working Papers 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2018. "Financial Development and Long-Run Volatility Trends," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 221-251, April.
    17. Cao, Dan & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 93-108.
    18. Yi Wen, 2021. "The Poverty of Macroeconomics --- What the Chemical Revolution Tells Us about Neoclassical Production Function," Working Papers 2021-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Battiati, Claudio, 2019. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 299-324.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset bubble; Borrowing constraints; Elastic credit supply; Investment boom; Multiplier-accelerator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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