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Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises

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Author Info

  • Pengfei Wang
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

Are asset prices unduly volatile and often detached from their fundamentals? Does the bursting of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these issues by constructing a DSGE model with speculative bubbles. We characterize conditions under which storable goods, regardless of their intrinsic values, can carry bubbles, and agents are willing to invest in such bubbles despite their positive probability of bursting. The results show that systemic risk, commonly perceived changes in the bubble's probability of bursting, can generate boom-bust cycles with hump-shaped output dynamics and produce asset price movements many times more volatile than the economy's fundamentals. (JEL E13, E23, E32, E44, G01, G12).

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.4.3.184
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 184-221

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:4:y:2012:i:3:p:184-221

Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.3.184
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References

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  1. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2008. "Competing Liquidities: Corporate Securities Real Bonds and Bubbles," IDEI Working Papers 506, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  2. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  4. Patrick-Antoine Pintus & Yi Weng, 2009. "Leveraged financing, over investment, and boom-bust cycles," Working Papers halshs-00439245, HAL.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2012. "Banking Bubbles and Financial Crisis," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG & Lifang Xu, 2012. "Stock Market Bubbles and Unemployment," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2013. "Financial development and long-run volatility trends," Working Papers 2013-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2012. "Asset bubbles, economic growth, and a self-fulfilling financial crisis: a dynamic general equilibrium model of infinitely lived heterogeneous agents," MPRA Paper 37309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2011. "Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  6. Areal, Francisco J & Balcombe, Kelvin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2013. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," MPRA Paper 48015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. repec:wyi:journl:002167 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao, 2011. "Bubbles and Credit Constraints," 2011 Meeting Papers 94, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
  10. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2014. "Perspective ale ţintirii inflaţiei
    [Perspectives of the Inflation Targeting]
    ," MPRA Paper 52943, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jan 2014.
  11. Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Bubbles over the U.S. business cycle: A macroeconometric approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 27-41.
  12. Benhabib, Jess & Wang, Pengfei, 2013. "Financial constraints, endogenous markups, and self-fulfilling equilibria," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 789-805.
  13. Zhiwei Xu & Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao, 2013. "A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles," 2013 Meeting Papers 167, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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