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Le choix d’un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bi-polaires ?

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Author Info
Jean-Pierre Allégret () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)
Mohamed Ayadi () (Université de Tunis, Institut supérieur de gestion (ISG))
Leila Haouaoui Khouni () (Université de Tunis, Institut supérieur de gestion (ISG))
Abstract

This paper studies the choice of the exchange rate regime in emerging and developing countries. The literature on exchange rate regimes is often based either on theoretical models or on empirical analysis. Our paper presents a different perspective by developing a theoretical model which is tested empirically. We consider the main determinants of the exchange rate regime: the pass-through, the relative volatility of nominal and real shocks, the discretionary bias, the credit channel and the balance-sheet effect. The model is tested with a logit multinomial approach on a sample of 43 emerging and developing countries. We determine the probability of occurrence of a given exchange rate regime in taking into account the preceding determinants identified with the theoretical model. Overall, our results suggest that intermediate regimes are the regimes the best adapted to developing and emerging countries.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure in its series Working Papers with number 0819.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0819

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate regimes; Emerging countries; Developing countries; Logit multinomial model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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