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Prospects for global food security: a critical appraisal of past projections and predictions

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  • McCalla, Alex F
  • Revoredo, Cesar L.

Abstract

During the last half century, a number of individuals and institutions, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and IFPRI, have engaged in projections of future food demand, supply, and related variables. In this brief, Alex McCalla and Cesar Revoredo compare projections with real-life outcomes. Projections forecast outcomes on the basis of certain underlying factors. If such forecasted outcomes are undesirable, changes may be made in the underlying factors so that the projections may not, in fact, come to pass. Many projections serve this precise goal. Therefore, the success of projections may not be that they match actual outcomes but that they avoid such outcomes by promoting action to change underlying variables. Unlike predictions, which are successful only if they match actual outcomes, projections that differ from actual outcomes may reflect either poor projection models or changes in underlying variables, possibly caused by the projections themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • McCalla, Alex F & Revoredo, Cesar L., 2001. "Prospects for global food security: a critical appraisal of past projections and predictions," 2020 vision discussion papers 35, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:2020dp:35
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    Cited by:

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    2. B. Bala & M. Hossain, 2010. "Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 511-529, August.
    3. Patrick Webb, 2002. "The Dynamics of Food, Nutrition and Poverty in SE Asia," Working Papers in Food Policy and Nutrition 09, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy.
    4. O'Neill, Brian C. & Desai, Mausami, 2005. "Accuracy of past projections of US energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 979-993, May.
    5. Philip G. Pardey & Jason M. Beddow & Terrance M. Hurley & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Vernon R. Eidman, 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 571-589, October.
    6. McCalla, Alex F., 2007. "FAO in the Changing Global Landscape," Working Papers 190919, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Toma, Luiza & Mathijs, Erik & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2006. "Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession," Working Papers 45991, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    8. Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2014. "Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 554-570, October.
    9. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2020. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Muhammad Bashir & Steven Schilizzi, 2015. "Food security policy assessment in the Punjab, Pakistan: effectiveness, distortions and their perceptions," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(5), pages 1071-1089, October.
    11. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    12. Tariq H. Malik & Jae Chul Choi, 2021. "Social Media Versus Personal Experience in the Consumer’s Apprehension on Imported Food Security and Safety Dilemma," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    13. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.
    14. Pardey, Philip G. & Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Beatty, Timothy K.M. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2014. "The International Agricultural Prospects Model: Assessing Consumption and Production Futures Through 2050 (version 2.1)," Staff Papers 182192, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    15. Michiel van Dijk & Gerdien Meijerink, 2014. "A review of global food security scenario and assessment studies: results, gaps and research priorities," FOODSECURE Working papers 20, LEI Wageningen UR.
    16. Achterbosch, Thom J. & Dopfer, Dorte D.V. & Tabeau, Andrzej A., 2005. "Cattle Trade and the Risk of Importing Animal Diseases into the Netherlands," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24558, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Toma, Luiza & Ashworth, Cheryl J. & Stott, Alistair W., 2008. "A Partial Equilibrium Model Of The Linkages Between Animal Welfare, Trade And The Environment In Scotland," 109th Seminar, November 20-21, 2008, Viterbo, Italy 44825, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Lakner, Zoltan & Baker, Gregory A., 2014. "Struggling with Uncertainty: The State of Global Agri-Food Sector in 2030," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1-36, November.
    19. Lopez Barrera, Emiliano & Hertel, Thomas, 2021. "Global food waste across the income spectrum: Implications for food prices, production and resource use," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    20. Michiel van Dijk, 2012. "A review of global scenario exercises for food security analysis: Assumptions and results," FOODSECURE Working papers 2, LEI Wageningen UR.

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    Keywords

    Food consumption.; Food security.;

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