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Inflation persistence and relative contracting

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Author Info
John C. Driscoll
Steinar Holden

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Abstract

Macroeconomists have for some time been aware that the New Keynesian Phillips curve, though highly popular in the literature, cannot explain the persistence observed in actual inflation. We argue that one of the more prominent alternative formulations, the Fuhrer and Moore (1995) relative contracting model, is highly problematic. Fuhrer and Moore's 1995 formulation generates inflation persistence, but this is a consequence of their assuming that workers care about the past real wages of other workers. Making the more reasonable assumption that workers care about the current real wages of other workers, one obtains the standard formulation with no inflation persistence.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-29.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-29

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

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  1. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-Rationality and Inflation in Two Monetary Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Bhaskar, V, 1990. "Wage Relativities and the Natural Range of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 60-66, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 050607, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recent research," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 05-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2006. "Understanding inflation persistence - a comparison of different models," Working Paper Series 672, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2008. "Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 94, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Nunziata, Luca & Bowdler, Christopher, 2005. "Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi-Country Study," IZA Discussion Papers 1510, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Endogenous Inflation - The Role of Expectations and Strategic Interaction," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Steinar Holden, 2004. "Behavioural Macroeconomics and the Aggregate Supply Puzzle," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 27-35. [Downloadable!]
  10. Markus Knell & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2009. "The impact of reference norms on inflation persistence when wages are staggered," Working Paper Series 1047, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín & Uusküla, Lenno, 2009. "Deep Habits and the Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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