IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/xrs/sfbmaa/05-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous Inflation - The Role of Expectations and Strategic Interaction

Author

Listed:
  • Seidel, Gerald

    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

Abstract

Macroeconomic fluctuations always are the result of complex interactive processes. For this reason, our challenge of the widely used New Keynesian Phillips Curve builds on Taylor's (1979) version, which provides room for a richer sequential and interactive structure. We show that the Taylor model can be fruitfully complemented by the assumption of a �timeless� optimizing central bank. The macroeconomic equilibrium exhibits a significant degree of inflation inertia which is an endogenous economic result and not merely the consequence of exogenous persistence in aggregate real activity. This result is in stark contrast to earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found the New Keynesian Phillips curve to show more persistent reactions than its Taylor (1979) companion when being exposed to an exogenous monetary shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Endogenous Inflation - The Role of Expectations and Strategic Interaction," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:05-14
    Note: I would like to thank Björn Frank, Oliver Kirchkamp, and Daniel Schunk for helpful comments.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/publications/dp05-14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
    2. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    3. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 2009. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521104609, January.
    4. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Simple Estimated Euro Area Model With Rational Expectations And Nominal Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 187, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Steinar Holden & John C. Driscoll, 2003. "Inflation Persistence and Relative Contracting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1369-1372, September.
    6. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 791-831, October.
    7. Flint Brayton & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Jensen, Christian & McCallum, Bennett T., 2002. "The non-optimality of proposed monetary policy rules under timeless perspective commitment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 163-168, October.
    9. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    10. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2002. "Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence," NBER Working Papers 9174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kiley, Michael T, 2002. "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 283-298, May.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    14. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
    17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Burhan Othman Hussein, 2018. "The Time Change of the Consumer Price Index Response to the Changes That Occur in the Supply of Money in the Iraqi Economy," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 7-10:4.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Fair Behavior and Inflation Persistence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-09, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Endogenous inflation : the role of expectations and strategic interaction," Papers 05-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    3. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Fair behavior and inflation persistence," Papers 05-09, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    4. Dennis, Richard & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2006. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 847-872, June.
    5. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2002. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1585-1611, August.
    6. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2010. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 872-912, June.
    7. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
    8. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Eric JONDEAU & Herve LE BIHAN, 2003. "ML vs GMM Estimates of Hybrid Macroeconomic Models (With an Application to the "New Phillips Curve")," Econometrics 0303006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 791-831, October.
    11. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank.
    12. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    13. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Macroeconomics 0506013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kimura, Takeshi & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-431, February.
    15. Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US Data," Working papers 86, Banque de France.
    16. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    17. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
    19. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    20. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:05-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carsten Schmidt (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.