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Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values

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Author Info
John Krainer
Mark Spiegel
Nobuyoshi Yamori

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Abstract

We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly prices adjust following a shock to fundamentals. We examine the predictions of the model by studying price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1990 stock market crash. Commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. As we would posit that the variance of buyer valuations would be greater for residential real estate than for commercial real estate, this model matches the Japanese experience.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2004-16.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-16

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Keywords: Real property ; Prices ; Japan;

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  2. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  5. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai-sun Kwong & Charles Ka-yui Leung, 2002. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Departmental Working Papers _147, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
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  7. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Is Japan's saving rate high?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-9. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hoshi, Takeo, 2001. "What Happened to Japanese Banks?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29, February. [Downloadable!]
  11. Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Pricing Real Assets with Costly Search," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Kelly & Stephen LeRoy, 2001. "Liquidity and Liquidation," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 3-02, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1988. "Saving for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 351-384, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160. [Downloadable!]
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