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Contagion effects during the Asian financial crisis: stock price data

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  • Jose Antonio R. Tan, III
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    Abstract

    Most governments of affected economies during the Asian financial crisis tend to gravitate towards a self-fulfilling expectations story of multiple equilibria, i.e. macroeconomic fundamentals are sound and that their economies were simply affected by the spillover effects of the Thai, Indonesian and even the Korean crises. In this paper, we examine the nature and extent of contagion during the Asian financial turmoil using evidence from movements in the national stock markets. In particular we determine the extent of stock price movements in the crisis-affected countries on those of other countries. Also, this paper highlights the difference in co-movements of stock prices before and after the crisis. This study confirms the contagion effect during the Asian financial crisis using a vector error correction model, and impulse response functions and variance decomposition of a daily VAR model.

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    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 98-06.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:98-06

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    Keywords: Financial crises - Asia ; Asia ; Stock - Prices;

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    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
    2. Gikas Hardouvelis & Rafael La Porta & Thierry A. Wizman, 1994. "What Moves the Discount on Country Equity Funds?," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 345-403 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    5. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Bruce Mizrach & Anna J. Schwartz, 1995. "Real Versus Pseudo-International Systemic Risk: Some Lessons from History," NBER Working Papers 5371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kasa, Kenneth & Huh, Chan, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 68-80, February.
    9. Wayne Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 59-147 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
    12. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    13. Paul Cashin & Manmohan S. Kumar & C. John McDermott, 1995. "International Integration of Equity Markets and Contagion Effects," IMF Working Papers 95/110, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Rogers, John H., 1994. "Entry barriers and price movements between major and emerging stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 221-241.
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 232-266.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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