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Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin

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  • Kenneth Kasa

Abstract

This paper estimates a linearized, stochastic version of Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) credit cycle model, using land price data from Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. It is shown that the welfare costs of borrowing constraints are positively related to the persistence of (de-trended) land price fluctuations. When the residual demand curve for land is inelastic and the steady state share of land held by the constrained sector is less than 30 percent, welfare costs are less than 1 percent of GDP in all countries. However, the costs of borrowing constraints rise quickly as the constrained sector becomes more important and as the elasticity of unconstrained land demand increases. For example, if the efficient share of the constrained sector is 50 percent and residual demand elasticity is 2.0, then costs range from 9 percent of GDP in Korea, where fluctuations are relatively transitory, to 11 percent of GDP in Japan, where land price fluctuations are the most persistent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 98-04.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:98-04

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Keywords: Hong Kong ; Japan ; Korea ; Asia ; Financial crises - Asia;

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  1. Hali J. Edison & Pongsak Luangaram & Marcus Miller, 1998. "Asset bubbles, domino effects and 'lifeboats': elements of the East Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 606, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Kasa, Kenneth & Huh, Chan, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 68-80, February.
  3. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  6. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
  8. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  9. Jeffrey Lacker, 2001. "Collateralized Debt as the Optimal Contract," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 842-859, October.
  10. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
  11. Gertler, Mark, 1992. "Financial Capacity and Output Fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-period Financial Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 455-72, July.
  12. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2003. "Credit Constraints and the Current Account: A Test for the Japanese Economy," KIER Working Papers 573, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2009. "The boom and the bust of the Japanese economy: A quantitative look at the period 1980-2000," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 116-131, January.
  4. Assenza, Tiziana & Agliari, Anna & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Santoro, Emiliano, 2009. "Borrowing constraints and complex dynamics in an OLG framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 656-669, November.
  5. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Soft Landings (February 2000), with Martin Schneider," UCLA Economics Online Papers 241, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Agliari Anna & Assenza Tiziana & Delli Gatti Domenico & Santoro Emiliano, 2007. "Credit Cycles in a OLG Economy with Money and Bequest," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2011. "Collateral Constraints and Legal Protection of Lenders: A Macroeconomic Perspective," MPRA Paper 35356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2006. "Amplifying Business Cycles through Credit Constraints," MPRA Paper 1808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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