Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Monetary shocks and stock returns: identification through the impossible trinity

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ali K. Ozdagli
  • Yifan Yu
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper attempts to identify how monetary policy shocks affect stock prices by using Mundell and Fleming's theory of the "Impossible Trinity." According to this theory, it is impossible to simultaneously have a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement (an absence of capital controls), and an independent monetary policy. The authors present evidence that Hong Kong's monetary policy is heavily dependent on the monetary policy of the United States, a stance which is consistent with this theory because the HK dollar has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1983 and Hong Kong does not impose any capital controls. As a result, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions can be considered as exogeneous shocks to the Hong Kong economy. Recognizing this relationship helps us solve the endogeneity problem inherent in the studies examining the relationship between stock prices and monetary policy shocks. This is the first paper that presents evidence of severe omitted variable bias in the event studies focusing on the relationship between monetary policy and stock returns. The authors also suggest a way to remedy this bias.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2012/wp1218.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2012/wp1218.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 12-18.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:12-18

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210
    Phone: 617-973-3397
    Fax: 617-973-4221
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: Monetary policy ; Monetary policy - Hong Kong ; Stock - Prices;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Sellin, Peter, 2001. " Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    2. Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    5. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    6. Simon Johnson & Kalpana Kochhar & Todd Mitton & Natalia Tamirisa, 2007. "Malaysian Capital Controls: Macroeconomics and Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 529-574 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bjørnland , Hilde & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Research Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland.
    8. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. " Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-72, December.
    9. Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Real-time Taylor rules and the federal funds futures market," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 44-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:12-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.