Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents
AbstractThis paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998-2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality-constant (i.e. indices should not only control for the characteristics of rental units), but should also be maturity-constant.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering in its series FAME Research Paper Series with number rp59.
Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Term Structure; Expectations Hypothesis; Forward Rents; Rental Index Construction;
Other versions of this item:
- Peter Englund & �ke Gunnelin & Martin Hoesli & Bo Söderberg, 2004. "Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 183-215, 06.
- Englund, Peter & Gunnelin, Åke & Hoesli, Martin & Söderberg, Bo, 2002. "Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents," SIFR Research Report Series 12, Institute for Financial Research.
- R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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