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Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions - An Experimental Approach -

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Author Info
Gerlinde Fellner ()
Werner Güth ()
Boris Maciejovsky ()

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Abstract

Overall, 72 subjects invest their endowment in four risky assets. Each combination of assets yields the same expected return and variance of returns. Illusion of expertise prevails when one prefers nevertheless the self-selected portfolio. After being randomly assigned to groups of four subjects are ask to elect their "expert" based on responses to a prior decision task. Using the random price machanism reveals that 64% of the subjects prefer their own portfolio over the average group portfolio or the expert's portfolio. Illusion of expertise is shown to be stable individually, over alternatives, and for both eliciting methods, willingness to pay and to accept.

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Paper provided by Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group in its series Papers on Strategic Interaction with number 2001-02.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:esi:discus:2001-02

Note: Financial support by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB-373, C5) is gratefully acknowledged. We are indebted to Silke Meiner, Sylvia Schikora, and Volker Zieman for their research assistance. Valuable comments by Richard Thaler, Martin Weber and by participants at the GEW-meeting in Magdeburg are also acknowledged.
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Related research
Keywords: Investment decisions; Portfolio selection; Overconfidence; Unrealistic optimism; Illusion of control; Endowment effect;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dittrich, Dennis & Gueth, Werner & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2001. "Overconfidence in Investment Decisions: An Experimental Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 2002. "How Much Is Investor Autonomy Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1593-1616, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hoffman, Elizabeth & Spitzer, Matthew L., 1990. "The Divergence Between Willingness-To-Pay and Willingness-To-Accept Measures of Value," Working Papers 755, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002. " Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
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  13. Knetsch, Jack L & Sinden, J A, 1984. "Willingness to Pay and Compensation Demanded: Experimental Evidence of an Unexpected Disparity in Measures of Value," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 507-21, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Peter Ockenfels & Rosemarie Nagel & Frank Heinemann, 2002. "Speculative Attacks and Financial Architecture: Experimental Analysis of Coordination Games with Public and Private Information," FMG Discussion Papers dp416, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "The Internet and the Investor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 41-54, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence and Consumption over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 0712, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Adam S. Goodie & Diana L. Young, 2007. "The skill element in decision making under uncertainty: Control or competence?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 189-203, June. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marion Eberlein & Judith Przemeck, 2008. "Whom will you choose? - Collaborator Selection and Selector’s Self-Prediction," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse12_2008, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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