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Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters

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Author Info
Andrew Metrick

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the equity-portfolio recommendations made by investment newsletters. The dataset spans 17 years, is free of survivor and back-fill biases, and includes the complete recommendations for 153 different newsletters. Overall, there is no significant evidence of superior stock-picking ability for this sample of newsletters. Some individual letters do have superior performance records, but this does not occur more often than would be expected by chance, and these records are never more extreme than would be expected for the sample size. In addition, a strategy of buying past winners does not earn positive abnormal returns. The comprehensive and bias-free transactions database also allows for insights into several popular models of performance evaluation. The transactions-based approach of Daniel, Grinblatt, Titman and Wermers (1997) yields a median improvement in precision of 10 percent over the 4-factor model of Carhart (1997a), with the former approach providing more precise estimates of abnormal performance for more than 80 percent of the newsletters. This compares with a median improvement of less than 1 percent for the 4-factor model over the CAPM.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6648.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6648

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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  1. Irwin, Scott H. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Good, Darrel L., 1999. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14789, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Malcolm Baker & Lubomir Litov & Jessica A. Wachter & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from the Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements," NBER Working Papers 10685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Jackson, Thomas E., 2001. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Wheat Market Over 1995-1998," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14778, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 12346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hackethal, Andreas & Haliassos, Michalis & Jappelli, Tullio, 2009. "Financial Advisors: A Case of Babysitters?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7235, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E., 2000. "The Private Sector Approach To Grain Marketing: The Case Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services," 2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19579, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  7. Andersson, Patric, 2004. "How well do financial experts perform? A review of empirical research on performance of analysts, day-traders, forecasters, fund managers, investors, and stockbrokers," Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2004:9, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Martines-Filho, Joao, 2000. "The Performance Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services In Marketing Wheat," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18928, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  9. Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14773, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Charles P. Thomas, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp162, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  11. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gerlinde Fellner & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2001. "Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions - An Experimental Approach -," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2001-02, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 1999. "The Profits to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 6913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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