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The intertemporal mechanics of European stock price momentum

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Author Info

  • Philip A. Stork

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between a stock market's index returns and its subsequent firm-level momentum profits. This relationship is analysed for each of ten individual European stock markets between 1973 and 2010. Design/methodology/approach – Using firm-level data, intra-market momentum returns are analysed, using various ranking and holding period combinations. Standard t-tests as well as pooled and country-specific regressions are employed to determine the significance of the non-linear relationship between one-, two- and three-year index returns and subsequent momentum returns. Findings – Momentum returns following a bull market are positive for all ten stock markets; statistical significance is reached by nine of those ten. Per contrast, momentum returns following a bear market are insignificant for all ten stocks markets, and the average return is negative. Further, in all ten stock markets the momentum profits are lowest following the greatest drops in the index; this effect is significant in eight countries. These results are consistent with the behavioural theories on investors' overconfidence and undue self-attribution. Practical implications – The paper's findings suggest that investors should refrain from pursuing a momentum strategy in European stock markets shortly after a severe bear market. Originality/value – This is the first study to investigate the temporal dependence of firm-level momentum returns on preceding index movements in European stock markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 217-232

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Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:217-232

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Related research

Keywords: European stock markets; Overconfidence; Price momentum; Profit; Self-attribution; Stock returns;

References

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  1. Nijman, Theo & Swinkels, Laurens & Verbeek, Marno, 2004. "Do countries or industries explain momentum in Europe?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 461-481, September.
  2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
  3. Huang, Dayong, 2006. "Market states and international momentum strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 437-446, July.
  4. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
  5. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
  6. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, 04.
  7. Miffre, Joelle & Rallis, Georgios, 2007. "Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1863-1886, June.
  8. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
  9. K. Rouwenhorst, 1996. "International Momentum Strategies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm36, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2008.
  10. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joelle Miffre, 2006. "Momentum Profits and Time-Varying Unsystematic Risk," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2006-09, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Sep 2006.
  11. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  12. Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 425-447, June.
  13. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
  14. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, 06.
  15. Rachev, Svetlozar & Jasic, Teo & Stoyanov, Stoyan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2007. "Momentum strategies based on reward-risk stock selection criteria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
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