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Historical decompositions for nonlinear vector autoregression models

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  • Benjamin Wong

Abstract

The historical decomposition is standard within the vector autogression (VAR) toolkit. It provides an interpretation of historical fluctuations in the modelled time series through the lens of the identified structural shocks. The proliferation of nonlinear VAR models naturally leads to extending the historical decomposition into nonlinear settings. This article discusses how to calculate an exact historical decomposition for a large class of popular nonlinear VAR models. In particular, the standard historical decomposition one obtains from a linear VAR is nested within the nonlinear case. The approach discussed in this article is sufficiently general to be relevant for many popular variants of nonlinear VAR models.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Historical decompositions for nonlinear vector autoregression models," CAMA Working Papers 2017-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-62
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-10/62_2017_wong.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    2. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    3. Junior A. Ojeda Cunya & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR- SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-507, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    4. Atems, Bebonchu & Mette, Jehu & Lin, Guoyu & Madraki, Golshan, 2023. "Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2023. "Consumer price rigidity in periods of low and high inflation: the case of Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 34, Bank of Lithuania.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Historical Decomposition; Innovation Accounting; Nonlinear VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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