IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/wc2000/1668.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Warranted Skepticism: A Dynamic Model of Infant Industry Protection

Author

Listed:
  • Mitsuhiro Kaneda

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

The neo-classical model of infant industry protection is limited in that agents have static expectations. This paper incorporates a fundamental behavioral assumption, that agents base their decisions on future expectations. An analysis of the global perfect foresight dynamics exposes the rich relationship between protection and outcome, and new policy implications. If an industry is to be protected until its good is competitive in the world market, its success is as likely as its failure, explaining the unreliability of protection programs in practice. The industry's decline after an initial take-off can also be an equilibrium. For the industry's growth to be an equilibrium, protection can be removed before the industry achieves international competitiveness. For the industry's growth to be the unique equilibrium, protection has to continue even after international competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitsuhiro Kaneda, 2000. "Warranted Skepticism: A Dynamic Model of Infant Industry Protection," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1668, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1668
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1668.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Behrman & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 4.
    2. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    3. Krueger, Anne O & Tuncer, Baran, 1982. "An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1142-1152, December.
    4. Panagariya, Arvind, 1986. "Increasing returns, dynamic stability, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 43-63, February.
    5. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "The market size, entrepreneurship, and the big push," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 347-364, December.
    6. Harrison, Ann E, 1994. "An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1090-1095, September.
    7. Krueger, Anne O., 1984. "Trade policies in developing countries," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 519-569, Elsevier.
    8. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    9. Kaneda Mitsuhiro, 1995. "Industrialization under Perfect Foresight: A World Economy with a Continuum of Countries," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 437-462, August.
    10. J. Behrman & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    11. Rodrik, Rani, 1995. "Trade and industrial policy reform," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 45, pages 2925-2982, Elsevier.
    12. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "Decreasing Costs in International Trade and Frank Graham's Argument for Protection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1243-1268, September.
    13. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "Increasing returns, imperfect markets, and trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 325-365, Elsevier.
    14. Bell, Martin & Ross-Larson, Bruce & Westphal, Larry E., 1984. "Assessing the performance of infant industries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 101-128.
    15. Aaron Tornell, 1991. "Time Inconsistency of Protectionist Programs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 963-974.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaneda, Mitsuhiro, 2003. "Policy designs in a dynamic model of infant industry protection," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 91-115, October.
    2. Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 1997. "Shaping long-run expectations in problems of coordination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 783-806, December.
    3. Françoise Drumetz & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Pierre Jaillard, 1993. "La convergence régionale et l'UEM," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 262(1), pages 135-147.
    4. Matsui, Akihiko & Oyama, Daisuke, 2006. "Rationalizable foresight dynamics," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-322, August.
    5. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michele Peruzzi & Alessio Terzi, 2018. "Growth Accelerations Strategies," CID Working Papers 91a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. , & , & ,, 2008. "Monotone methods for equilibrium selection under perfect foresight dynamics," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), June.
    8. Kiminori Matsuyama & Takaaki Takahashi, 1998. "Self-Defeating Regional Concentration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(2), pages 211-234.
    9. Sonali Deraniyagala & Ben Fine, 2000. "New Trade Theory Versus Old Trade Policy: A Continuing Enigma," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    10. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    11. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Wall, Howard J., 2007. "Is There Too Little Immigration?," IZA Discussion Papers 2825, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Perez-Aleman, Paola, 2000. "Learning, Adjustment and Economic Development: Transforming Firms, The State and Associations in Chile," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 41-55, January.
    13. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Howard Wall, 2008. "Is there too little immigration? An analysis of temporary skilled migration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 197-211.
    14. Matthias Busse & José L. Groizard, 2008. "Technology Trade in Economic Development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 569-592, April.
    15. Daisuke Oyama & Satoru Takahashi & Josef Hofbauer, 2011. "Perfect foresight dynamics in binary supermodular games," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 251-267, September.
    16. Diana Barros (a) Aurora A.C. Teixeira (b), 2021. "A Portrait of Development Economics in the Last Sixty Years," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 69-118, June.
    17. Denis Delgay-Troïse, 1993. "Distorsions sur les marchés des facteurs et évolution des spécialisations internationales," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(1), pages 51-70.
    18. Joseph F. Francois & Douglas Nelson, 2002. "A Geometry Of Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 649-678, July.
    19. Kamel Malik BENSAFTA, 2013. "Les exportations des produits manufacturés et convergence du niveau de vie : cas d'un pays exportateur de pétrole," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1113, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    20. Bryan Graham & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-41, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.