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The Effects of Conflict on Fertility in Rwanda

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  • Kati Schindler
  • Tilman Brück

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the short and long-term fertility effects of mass violent conflict on different population sub-groups. The authors pool three nationally representative demographic and health surveys from before and after the genocide in Rwanda, identifying conflict exposure of the survivors in multiple ways. The analysis finds a robust effect of genocide on fertility, with a strong replacement effect for lost children. Having lost siblings reduces fertility only in the short term. Most interesting is the continued importance of the institution of marriage in determining fertility and in reducing fertility for the large group of widows in Rwanda.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.376662.de/dp1143.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1143.

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Length: 47 p.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1143

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Keywords: conflict; demography; fertility; gender; genocide; Rwanda;

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References

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  1. Ainsworth, Martha & Beegle, Kathleen & Nyamete, Andrew, 1996. "The Impact of Women's Schooling on Fertility and Contraceptive Use: A Study of Fourteen Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 85-122, January.
  2. Tom Bundervoet & Philip Verwimp & Richard Akresh, 2009. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
  3. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2010. "Identifying Conflict and Violence in Micro-Level Surveys," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 38, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Kati Schindler, 2010. "Who Does What in a Household after Genocide? Evidence from Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 90, Households in Conflict Network.
  5. Gustavo Angeles & David Guilkey & Thomas Mroz, 2005. "The determinants of fertility in rural Peru: Program effects in the early years of the national family planning program," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 367-389, 06.
  6. Akresh, Richard & de Walque, Damien, 2008. "Armed Conflict and Schooling: Evidence from the 1994 Rwandan Genocide," IZA Discussion Papers 3516, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. de Walque, Damien & Verwimp, Philip, 2009. "The demographic and socio-economic distribution of excess mortality during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4850, The World Bank.
  8. Philip Verwimp, 2003. "Micro-level Evidence from Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 08, Households in Conflict Network.
  9. Stanislav Kolenikov & Gustavo Angeles, 2009. "Socioeconomic Status Measurement With Discrete Proxy Variables: Is Principal Component Analysis A Reliable Answer?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(1), pages 128-165, 03.
  10. Andre, Catherine & Platteau, Jean-Philippe, 1998. "Land relations under unbearable stress: Rwanda caught in the Malthusian trap," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-47, January.
  11. Shemyakina, Olga, 2011. "The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: Results from Tajikistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 186-200, July.
  12. Sahn, David E. & Stifel, David C., 2000. "Poverty Comparisons Over Time and Across Countries in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2123-2155, December.
  13. Tilman Bruck & Kati Schindler, 2009. "The Impact of Violent Conflicts on Households: What Do We Know and What Should We Know about War Widows?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 289-309.
  14. Anuja Jayaraman & Tesfayi Gebreselassie & S. Chandrasekhar, 2009. "Effect of Conflict on Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth in Rwanda," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 551-567, October.
  15. Marijke Verpoorten, 2005. "The Death Toll of the Rwandan Genocide: A Detailed Analysis for Gikongoro Province," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 60(4), pages 331-367.
  16. Weiren Wang & Felix Famoye, 1997. "Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 273-283.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gavrilova, Evelina & Bove, Vincenzo, 2013. "Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan," MPRA Paper 50545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Giulia La Mattina, 2014. "Civil Conflict, Sex Ratio and Intimate Partner Violence in Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 175, Households in Conflict Network.
  3. Bundervoet, Tom, 2014. "What explains Rwanda's drop in fertility between 2005 and 2010 ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6741, The World Bank.
  4. Olga Shemyakina & Anke Plagnol, 2013. "Subjective Well-Being and Armed Conflict: Evidence from Bosnia-Herzegovina," Social Indicators Research, Springer, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1129-1152, September.

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