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Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010

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  • Andrés Felipe Castro Torres

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • B. Piedad Urdinola

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia-Bogotá)

Abstract

This paper looks at the association between the Colombian Armed Internal Conflict (AIC) and fertility for women in the first decade of the 21st century when the conflict underwent a strategic change after the escalation of armed action by outlaw groups and frontal response by the Colombian government. We fit a Poisson model that incorporates spatial and temporal information, using individual-level data from the Colombian Demographic and Health Surveys from 2000 to 2010 and novel information, for the Colombian case, on the number of armed actions. In rural areas, we find that the AIC had a significant positive association with fertility and non-significant relationship in urban areas, of any size with robust and consistent estimators. Two possible explanations may clarify these results for a long-term conflict such as that in Colombia: (i) women’s responses to higher mortality levels and (ii) the weakening of local institutions assumed to provide protection and health-related services to women. Other than the improvement of health-related services in areas affected by the conflict, we also suggest data collection on these latter conditions directly from the population involved to facilitate future research on the connection between conflicts and demographic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Felipe Castro Torres & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2019. "Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(2), pages 173-213, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:38:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-018-9489-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-018-9489-x
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    2. Mera León, Harold, 2023. "Stillbirths, miscarriages and early losses in armed conflict contexts. The modification effect of violence. The Colombian case," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    3. Ginevra Floridi & Maria Gargiulo & José Manuel Aburto, 2023. "Changes in fertility rates and desires in the wake of the homicide surge in Mexico," HiCN Working Papers 399, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Andrés F. Castro Torres, 2020. "Analysis of Latin American fertility change in terms of probable social classes," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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