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Precautionary Saving and Income Uncertainty in Germany : New Evidence from Microdata

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Nikolaus Bartzsch

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Abstract

The saving ratio of households in Germany has increased in the past few years when the income trend was weak. This could be due to precautionary saving. In this paper, the importance of precautionary saving against income uncertainty is analyzed empirically using micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP). Wealth in 2002 is regressed on alternative measures of income uncertainty in a cross-section of households. In addition to the usual controls, risk aversion is also taken into account. When using net financial wealth, precautionary saving is statistically significant and economically quite important. The share of precautionary net financial wealth in total aggregate net financial wealth is on average about 20%. Compared with net financial wealth, housing wealth is not used as a buyer stock against income uncertainty, confirming the hypothesis that this kind of asset is rather illiquid.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers with number 21.

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Length: 43 p.
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp21

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Keywords: precautionary saving precautionary wealth buyer-stock model

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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  1. SOEP based publications
References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Murata, Keiko, 2003. "Precautionary Savings and Income Uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 21-52, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Rodepeter, Ralf & Schnabel, Reinhold & Winter, Joachim, 1999. "Ersparnisbildung in Deutschland: Meßkonzepte und Ergebnisse auf Basis der EVS," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-02, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2005. "Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 1730, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lothar Essig, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motive measures work?," MEA discussion paper series 05084, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1997. "Precautionary saving and subjective earnings variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 319-326, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Monica Paiella & Luigi Guiso, 2004. "The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviour," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 222, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2006. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Risk and Trust Attitudes," IZA Discussion Papers 2380, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 2006. "Precautionary Saving and Precautionary Wealth," Economics Working Paper Archive 530, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kimball, Miles S & Weil, Philippe, 2003. "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Smoothing Across Time and Possibilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 4005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Thomas K. Bauer & Mathias Sinning, 2005. "The Savings Behavior of Temporary and Permanent Migrants in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1632, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  16. John Bound & David A. Jaeger & Regina Baker, 1993. "The Cure Can Be Worse than the Disease: A Cautionary Tale Regarding Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Dardanoni, Valentino, 1991. "Precautionary Savings under Income Uncertainty: A Cross-Sectional Analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 153-60, Part B, J.
  18. Lothar Essig, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motive measures work?," MEA discussion paper series 05084, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  19. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Daniel Schunk, 2007. "What Determines the Saving Behavior of German Households? An Examination of Saving Motives and Saving Decisions," MEA discussion paper series 07124, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 859-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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