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Superior Information, Income Shocks, And The Permanent Income Hypothesis

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Author Info
Luigi Pistaferri

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Abstract

According to the permanent income hypothesis with quadratic preferences, households save for a rainy day the transitory component of income innovations and consume entirely the permanent one. The model also rules out precautionary saving. Typically, income shock components are not separately observable, and information on the conditional variance of income is hard to come by. We show how to combine income realizations with subjective expectations to identify separately the transitory and the permanent shock to income and to obtain a measure of idiosyncratic uncertainty, thus providing a powerful test of the theory in short panels. The empirical analysis is performed on a sample of Italian households drawn from the 1989-1991 Survey of Household Income and Wealth. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 83 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 465-476
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:3:p:465-476

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  1. Giamboni Luigi, 2004. "Do husbands’ and wives’ predictions irrationally diverge?," Departmental Working Papers 203, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mario Padula, 2000. "Excess Smoothness and Durable Goods: Evidence from Subjective Expectations Data," CSEF Working Papers 38, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cunha, Flavio & Heckman, James & Navarro, Salvador, 2004. "Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings," Working Paper Series 2005:6, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle," IFS Working Papers W06/27, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Harounan Kazianga & Christopher Udry, 2004. "Consumption Smoothing? Livestock, Insurance and Drought in Rural Burkina Faso," Working Papers 898, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Rodepeter, Ralf & Winter, Joachim, 1998. "Savings decisions under life-time and earnings uncertainty:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-58, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pistaferri, Luigi, 2002. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labour Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 3628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Alpo Willman, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Xavier Ramos & Christian Schluter, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  10. Xavier Ramos & Christian Schluter, 2003. "Subjective Income Expectations, Canonical Models and Income Risk," Working Papers wpdea0310, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona. [Downloadable!]
  11. Erich Battistin & Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 2003. "What do we learn from recall consumption data?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 466, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Giamboni Luigi & Waldmann Robert, 2004. "A behavioral model of consumption," Departmental Working Papers 202, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michael G. Palumbo & John A. James & Mark Thomas, 1999. "Consumption smoothing among working-class American families before social insurance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Mika Kuismanen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Information, habits, and consumption behavior - evidence from micro data," Working Paper Series 572, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Forslund, Anders & Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2006. "Swedish youth labour market policies revisited," Working Paper Series 2006:6, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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