Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas
AbstractFor resource-rich economies, primary commodity specialization has often been considered to be detrimental to growth. Accordingly, export diversification policies centered on resource-based industries have long been advocated as effective ways to moderate the large variability of export revenues. This paper discusses the applicability of a mean-variance portfolio approach to design these strategies and proposes some modifications aimed at capturing the key features of resource processing industries (presence of scale economies and investment lumpiness). These modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in resource-rich countries. An application to the case of natural gas is then discussed using data obtained from Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated empirical model. Lastly, the proposed framework is put to work to evaluate the performances of the diversification strategies implemented in a set of nine gas-rich economies. These results are then used to formulate some policy recommendations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, City University London in its series Working Papers with number 12/01.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Social Sciences Building, City University London, Whiskin Street, London, EC1R 0JD, United Kingdom,
Phone: +44 (0)20 7040 8500
Web page: http://www.city.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC
Resource-based industrialization; Mean-variance portfolio; Export earnings volatility; Natural gas;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-09-30 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2012-09-30 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-09-30 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Leybourne, S. Y. & Lloyd, T. A. & Reed, G. V., 1994. "The excess comovement of commodity prices revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1747-1758, November.
- Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Ragnar Tveterås, 2000.
"European Market Integration for Gas? Volume Flexibility and Political Risk,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
358, CESifo Group Munich.
- Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002. "European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
- Love, James, 1986. "Commodity concentration and export earnings instability : A shift from cross-section to time series analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 239-248, December.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010.
"The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey,"
Working Paper Series
rwp10-005, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K & Varangis, Panayotis, 1996. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 275-91, May-June.
- Roemer, Michael, 1979. "Resource-based industrialization in the developing countries : A survey," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 163-202, April.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Chunrong Ai & Arjun Chatrath & Frank Song, 2006. "On the Comovement of Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 574-588.
- Michael Alexeev & Robert Conrad, 2009. "The Elusive Curse of Oil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 586-598, August.
- Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1991.
"Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1980.
"Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
- Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
- E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
- Andre F. Perold, 1984. "Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(10), pages 1143-1160, October.
- Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
- Auty, Richard & Gelb, Alan, 1986. "Oil windfalls in a small parliamentary democracy: Their impact on Trinidad and Tobago," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 1161-1175, September.
- Walter Briec & Kristiaan Kerstens & Jean Baptiste Lesourd, 2002. "Single Period Markowitz Portfolio Selection, Performance Gauging and Duality: A Variation on Luenberger’s Shortage Function," Working Paper 200203, Department of Business Economics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona.
- Auty, R. M., 1988. "Oil-exporters' disappointing diversification into resource-based industry : The external causes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 230-242, June.
- Morey, Matthew R. & Morey, Richard C., 1999. "Mutual fund performance appraisals: a multi-horizon perspective with endogenous benchmarking," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 241-258, April.
- Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2005. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 141-174.
- Owens, Trudy & Wood, Adrian, 1997. "Export-oriented industrialization through primary processing?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1453-1470, September.
- Auty, Richard M., 1988. "State enterprise and resource based industry in oil exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 275-287, December.
- Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001.
"Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brainard, William C. & Cooper, Richard N., 1968. "Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 03.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Publications Librarian).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.