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European Market Integration for Gas? Volume Flexibility and Political Risk

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Author Info
Frank Asche
Petter Osmundsen ()
Ragnar Tveteras ()

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Abstract

Gas exports to the Continent are regulated by long term take-or-pay contracts. The contracts are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the most central European gas market, the German market, is integrated. Are there substantial price differences between gas from different export countries, and do prices move together? Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market (the Law of One Price holds). We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 358.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_358

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Related research
Keywords: Market integration; gas markets; cointegration test;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply

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  1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Doane, Michael J & Spulber, Daniel F, 1994. "Open Access and the Evolution of the U.S. Spot Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 477-517, October.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roques, F.A., 2007. "Technology Choices for New Entrants in Liberalised Markets: The Value of Operating Flexibility and Contractual Arrangements," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0759, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Government involvement in liberalised gas markets: A welfare-economic analysis of the Dutch gas-depletion policy," CPB Documents 110, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley & John Gibson, 2009. "Testing for Energy Market Integration in China," Working Papers 09_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Guillaume L'Hegaret & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2004. "International Market Integration for Natural Gas? A Cointegration Analysis of Prices in Europe, North America and Japan," Working Papers 0402, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Market failures and government policies in gas markets," CPB Memoranda 143, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Anne Neumann, 2008. "Linking Natural Gas Markets: Is LNG Doing Its Job?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 822, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Constanza Fosco Perea Muñoz & Eduardo Saavedra, . "Mercados de Gas Natual: Análisis Comparado de la Experiencia Internacional," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv150, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
  9. Knut Einar Rosendahl and Eirik Lund Sagen, 2007. "The Global Natural Gas Market. Will transport cost reductions lead to lower prices?," Discussion Papers 523, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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