Is It All Oil?
AbstractAfter opening up of the Interconnector, the liberalized UK natural gas market and the regulated Continental gas markets became physically integrated. The oil-linked Continental gas price became dominant, due to both the large volume of the Continental market and to the fact that the significant call options embedded in the complex take-or-pay contracts make these contracts the marginal source of supply. However, in an interim period – after deregulation of the UK gas market (1995) and the opening up of the Interconnector (1998) – the UK gas market had neither government price regulation nor a physical Continental gas linkage. We use this period – which for natural gas markets displays an unusual combination of deregulation and autarky – as a natural experiment to explore if decoupling of natural gas prices from prices of other energy commodities, such as oil and electricity, took place. Using monthly price data, we find a highly integrated market where wholesale demand seems to be for energy rather than a specific energy source.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1401.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
energy markets; price interlinkages; cointegration analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
- L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
- Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1996. "Aggregation without Separability: A Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 524-43, June.
- Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1994. "Open Access And The Emergence Of A Competitive Natural Gas Market," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 77-96, 04.
- Doane, Michael J & Spulber, Daniel F, 1994. "Open Access and the Evolution of the U.S. Spot Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 477-517, October.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994.
"Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Gonzalo, Jesús, . "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/731, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992.
"Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model,"
92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
- Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
- Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993.
"Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
- De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W. David, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt8368m144, University of California Transportation Center.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.