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Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Saborowski, Christian
  • Straub, Roland

Abstract

The paper shows that monetary policy shocks exert a substantial effect on the size and composition of capital flows and the trade balance for the United States, with a 100 basis point easing raising net capital inflows and lowering the trade balance by 1% of GDP, and explaining about 20-25% of their time variation. Monetary policy easing causes positive returns to both equities and bonds. Yet such a monetary policy easing shock also induces a shift in portfolio composition out of equities and into bonds, implying a negative conditional correlation between flows in equities and bonds. Moreover, such shocks induce a negative conditional correlation between equity flows and equity returns, but a positive conditional correlation between bond flows and bond returns. The findings thus provide evidence for the presence of a portfolio rebalancing motive behind investment decisions in equities, but the dominance of what is akin to a return chasing motive for bonds, conditional on monetary policy shocks. The results also shed light on the puzzle of the strongly time-varying equity-bond return correlations found in the literature.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8099.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8099

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Keywords: asset prices; capital flows; monetary policy; portfolio choice; sign restrictions; trade balance; United States; vector autoregressions;

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Cited by:
  1. Wollmershäuser, Timo & Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver, 2013. "The Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area During the Global Financial Crisis," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79976, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Munich Reprints in Economics 19367, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. Auer, Simone, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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