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Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle

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  • Bacchetta, Philippe
  • van Wincoop, Eric

Abstract

Two well-known, but seemingly contradictory, features of exchange rates are that they are close to a random walk while at the same time exchange rate changes are predictable by interest rate differentials. In this paper we investigate whether these two features of the data may in fact be related. In particular, we ask whether the predictability of exchange rates by interest differentials naturally results when participants in the FX market adopt random walk expectations. We find that random walk expectations can explain the forward premium puzzle, but only if FX portfolio positions are revised infrequently. In contrast, with frequent portfolio adjustment and random walk expectations, we find that high interest rate currencies depreciate much more than what UIP would predict.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6122.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6122

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Keywords: excess return; incomplete information; predictability;

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References

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  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Papers 05.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  3. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  4. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Loring, Grace & Lucey, Brian, 2013. "An analysis of forward exchange rate biasedness across developed and developing country currencies: Do observed patterns persist out of sample?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 14-28.
  2. Tracy Yue Wang & David Hirshleifer & Bing Han, 2010. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," 2010 Meeting Papers 1201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & de Vries, Casper, 2012. "The forward premium puzzle and latent factors day by day," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62017, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
  5. Demosthenes N. Tambakis & Nikola Tarashev, 2012. "Systematic monetary policy and the forward premium puzzle," BIS Working Papers 396, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Kerstin Bernoth & J�rgen von Hagen & Casper G. de Vries, 2007. "The Forward Premium Puzzle only emerges gradually," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-033/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Michael Jetter & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2013. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Forward Discount Puzzle," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010729, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.

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