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The War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking: An Economic Evaluation of Plan Colombia

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  • Daniel Mejía

    ()

  • Pascual Restrepo

    ()

Abstract

This paper provides a thorough economic evaluation of the anti-drug policies implemented in Colombia between 2000 and 2006 under the so-called Plan Colombia. The paper develops a game theory model of the war against illegal drugs in producer countries. We explicitly model illegal drug markets, which allows us to account for the feedback effects between policies and market outcomes that are potentially important when evaluating large scale policy interventions such as Plan Colombia. We use available data for the war on cocaine production and trafficking as well as outcomes from the cocaine markets to calibrate the parameters of the model. Using the results from the calibration we estimate important measures of the costs, effectiveness, and efficiency of the war on drugs in Colombia. Finally we carry out simulations in order to assess the impact of increases in the U.S. budget allocated to Plan Colombia, and find that a three-fold increase in the U.S. budget allocated to the war on drugs in Colombia would decrease the amount of cocaine that succesfully reaches consumer countries by about 17%.

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File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/dcede2008-19.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 005123.

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Length: 60
Date of creation: 02 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000089:005123

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Keywords: Hard drugs; conflict; war on drugs; Plan Colombia;

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Cited by:
  1. Mariana Blanco & Juan F. Vargas, 2010. "Empowering IDP with SMS: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Bogotá," HiCN Working Papers 84, Households in Conflict Network.
  2. Mejia, Daniel & Uribe, Maria Jose & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2011. "An Evaluation of the Macarena Integral Consolidation Plan (PCIM)," Documentos CEDE Series 107426, Universidad de Los Andes, Economics Department.
  3. Adriana Camacho & Alejandro Gaviria & Catherine Rodríguez, 2010. "El consumo de droga en Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 007607, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  4. Gerson Javier Pérez V., 2012. "Plan Colombia’s Onset: Effects on Homicides and Violent Deaths," Borradores de Economia 746, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Daniel Mejía, 2008. "The War on Illegal Drugs in Producer and Consumer Countries: A Simple Analytical Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 2459, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Ibanez, Marcela & Martinsson, Peter, 2013. "Curbing coca cultivation in Colombia — A framed field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-10.
  7. Leonardo Raffo López, 2010. "Narcotráfico y conflicto: ¿por qué bajó el precio de la cocaína?," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(23), pages 229-258, July-Dece.
  8. Juan David Prada-Sarmiento, 2010. "Uncertainty in conflicts," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 007713, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  9. Gerson Javier Pérez V., 2012. "Goals Met or Just Empty Promises? First Version of the Democratic Security Policy in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009408, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Blanco Mariana & Vargas Juan F., 2014. "Can SMS Technology Improve Low Take-up of Social Benefits?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 61-81, January.
  11. Juan Carlos Muñoz-Mora & Santiago Tobón-Zapata & Jesse d'Anjou, 2014. "Does land titling matter? The role of land property rights in the war on illicit crops in Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 168, Households in Conflict Network.

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