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Uncertainty in conflicts

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  • Juan David Prada-Sarmiento

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Abstract

This paper theoretically assesses the role that uncertainty plays in the intensity of conflicts. The standard two-player rent-seeking contest model (Tullock, 1980) is extended to allow for privately known subjective values of the prize. The conflict is modeled as a Bayesian game on which each player’s valuation is drawn independently from arbitrary distributions. We find sufficient conditions for when first-order and second-order stochastic refinements in the distributions cause predictable movements in the conflict’s dissipation. We focus on arbitrary contest success functions and arbitrary independent distributions for each player, allowing us to extend our analysis beyond the case of symmetric equilibria.

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File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/dcede2010-29.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 007713.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 04 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000089:007713

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  1. Daniel Mejía & Pascual Restrepo, 2008. "The War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking: An Economic Evaluation of Plan Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 53, Households in Conflict Network.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Giebe & Paul Schweinzer, 2013. "Probabilistic Procurement Auctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4320, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Thomas Giebe & Paul Schweinzer, 2012. "Fuzzy Price-Quality Ratio Procurement under Incomplete Information," Discussion Papers 12/26, Department of Economics, University of York.

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